2008 primer: Election is one year away

WASHINGTON -- On Nov. 4, 2008, U.S. voters go to the polls to elect the next president, who might be the first president to be: a woman, black, a Mormon, Hispanic, an Italian American, a Vietnam veteran.

Or they might pick someone else.

The two major parties' nominees could be wrapped up before you pick out a Valentine's Day card. Voters in Iowa will make their choice three days into the new year.

A look at some of the facts and figures on the race a year out:

What the polls say

Hillary Rodham Clinton is widening her lead over Barack Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, according to the most recent USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Oct. 12-14.

Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani leads among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, although more than half of Republicans said they "might change their mind."

The breakdown of the national poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points:

Democrats

Hillary Clinton: 50%.

Barack Obama: 21%.

John Edwards: 13%.

Other Democratic candidates combined for 8%.

Republicans

Rudy Giuliani: 32%.

Fred Thompson: 18%.

John McCain: 14%.

Mitt Romney: 10%.

Other Republican candidates combined for 16%.

Mark Blumenthal, editor of the non-partisan pollster.com, suggests caution on Clinton's positive results. "These perceptions can turn around in a great big hurry if you lose an early primary," he told USA TODAY when the poll came out in mid-October.

Clinton appears to lead in Iowa, home of the nation's first caucuses, but her numbers are within The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll's error margin. The results of the early October poll: Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 23%; Obama, 22%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.

Romney leads in an extremely fractured race in Iowa. He has the support of 29% of likely GOP caucus-goers, compared with Thompson at 18%, Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee at 12% and Giuliani at 11%, according to The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll taken Oct. 1-3.

What the voters say

The voting is starting so early that Americans lucky enough to have a say in nominating the next presidential candidates may very well make their choices on flawed presumptions about where the country will be a year from now.

What if, after Feb. 5, when voters in more than half the states will have already had a say, the economy goes into a recession? Or the war in Iraq takes a dramatic turn one way or another? Or the U.S. strikes Iran's nuclear facilities?

Will voters wish they hadn't made up their minds so early?

Right now, the No. 1 issue on voters' minds remains Iraq, with 38% naming it as the most important issue they'll take into account when voting, according to the Oct. 12-14 USA TODAY/Gallup poll.

Six in 10 call the invasion of Iraq a mistake, equal to the highest levels of anti-war feeling during the Vietnam conflict. Despite reports of progress after this year's rise in U.S. force levels, a majority say the situation in Iraq is getting worse for the United States. Only 16% say it's getting better.

The issue coming in a distant second in the poll: health care and health insurance, with 18% naming that issue, followed by the economy, named by 15%. Homeland security was fourth at 6%.

A national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 17-23, put the economy as the No. 1 issue, with health care and Iraq tied for second and education and jobs right after that. That's about what voters said three years ago. Pew noted that what's different is voters seem more concerned about energy and less concerned about social issues, such as gay marriage and abortion.

What the pundits say

Stuart Rothenberg, editor, Rothenberg Political Report:

On issues: "Most elections are not about kinds of issues. They're about big thematic things like change or continuity. Change is definitely the No. 1 issue, but it's not really an issue. Change is the No. 1 theme. Both sides will talk about change, they'll just talk about some different things. Republicans will use immigration as an example. Democrats will use the war in Iraq and health care."