Economy's slide has voters on edge
WASHINGTON -- Americans are increasingly downbeat about the economy and deeply worried that their standard of living is at risk, according to a new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll that shows family finances battered by a rise in fuel prices, the loss of jobs and a housing bust.
In all, 42% of those surveyed from Wednesday to Saturday rate the nation's economic conditions as poor, the most negative outlook since 1992 — another presidential election year, and one defined by economic angst that contributed to a Democratic takeover of the White House.
As a record 22 states hold presidential primaries and caucuses today, almost half of Americans say the United States is in a recession or depression. That bleak outlook is likely to reverberate in favor of Democrats again in this November's election, according to economists surveyed in a separate poll.
"It's gone from two years ago you could heat your house for $200, $220 a month, and now it's up to $500 or $600," says Natale Umbro, 59, owner and executive chef at the Tuscan Sun restaurant in Easton, Mass., who was among those surveyed. That has strained his budget — he is carrying about $12,000 in credit card debt — and made him wonder about the nation's leadership.
"I love this country; I joined the Air Force because this is the greatest country in the world," says Umbro, who emigrated from Italy with his family as a child. "But are they making laws … to protect the people from this?" He doesn't plan to vote in today's Massachusetts primary, but he does hope to cast a vote in November for Republican hopeful John McCain.
Voters typically blame the party that holds the White House for hard times. In a USA TODAY survey taken Jan. 23-25, 47 top economists predicted by 77%-4% that the economy would help Democrats over Republicans in the fall elections.
"This is a clear plus for the Democrats going into the fall campaign, so I think that the Democrats will certainly subscribe to the view that 'It's the economy, stupid,' " says Greg Valliere, chief political strategist for the Stanford Financial Group. "And this economy is not going to turn around anytime soon."
A year ago, the 2008 election seemed likely to be dominated by the war in Iraq, but economic concerns gradually have become a stronger focus of debates, campaign ads and voter queries. Now, voters' views of the economy help define each candidate's support.
Voters who are most pessimistic are drawn to the Democratic contenders, especially New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, according to an analysis of the USA TODAY survey. Those who are more upbeat are supporting the Republicans, especially former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney.
Clinton, hammering on the economy at rallies leading up to today's Super Tuesday contests, has been citing the case of Dianne and Tony Wafford at nearly every stop since she met the couple Saturday morning in Inglewood, near Los Angeles.
The Waffords took out a second mortgage to help send their daughter, Whitney, to college and now risk losing their home because payments on the adjustable-rate loan have risen. "They were responsible people … who did what they thought was right," Clinton said at an Albuquerque rally Sunday. She said she was "amazed and frustrated and outraged" by their plight.
