Senators to test McCain's independent clout

WASHINGTON -- As a presidential candidate, Republican John McCain made his political name with independent voters in states such as New Hampshire.

Four GOP senators facing tough re-election battles because of the unpopular Iraq war, President Bush's sagging approval ratings and the shaky economy will put McCain's independent appeal to the test in November.

"I can't think of a Republican candidate who could have more of a positive impact for Republicans nationwide," said Sen. John Sununu, a freshman who faces a rematch with former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen.

Republicans have 23 Senate seats to defend in the fall, and four incumbents — Sununu, Susan Collins of Maine, Gordon Smith of Oregon and Norm Coleman of Minnesota — are among the most vulnerable. In New Hampshire, Maine and Oregon, voters who are not registered as Democrats or Republicans make up at least 25% of the electorate. (Minnesota voters, who do not register by party, elected independent and former pro wrestler Jesse Ventura as their governor in 1998.)

McCain has attracted independents by going against the GOP on campaign finance, immigration and global warming. Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the non-partisan Cook Political Report, said the deciding factor for GOP incumbents in November could be whether Democrats can succeed in efforts to "morph McCain into George Bush."

"The interesting thing about McCain is that he may not help anybody, but he's not a drag on anybody," she said.

Matthew Miller, a spokesman for the Senate Democrats' campaign committee, said these four GOP incumbents are each in political trouble for different reasons, and "John McCain is not the solution for any of them."

Some Democrats said independent voters are already shifting to them.

Kate Bedingfield, Shaheen's communication director, noted that in the New Hampshire primary of Jan. 8, McCain received about 88,500 votes — far less than the popular vote totals of either Democratic candidate, Hillary Rodham Clinton or Barack Obama. New Hampshire allows independents to vote in either political primary.