Small Ohio towns play a hefty role

COSHOCTON, Ohio -- Small towns like this bucolic river community may play an outsized role in determining whether John McCain or Barack Obama becomes president. They are the swing counties in what may be the most important swing state in this election.

Four years ago, John Kerry's presidential campaign organization blitzed through Ohio's 16 heavily Democratic counties to generate massive voter turnout. On Election Day, Kerry won more votes in Ohio than any previous Democratic presidential nominee.

But his hefty edge in the state's urban areas couldn't quite offset huge margins President Bush ran up in towns like this one. Bush won Ohio in 2004 with 51% of the vote — a margin of about 118,600 votes of 5.6 million cast. His victory, which claimed Ohio's 20 electoral votes and clinched the election, was driven by huge margins in small towns and rural areas where he captured 60% or more of votes.

This year, McCain needs to run up the score in these small communities to offset Obama's advantage in Ohio's cities.

Ohio has dozens of rural counties containing small towns that once thrived on factories that made Huffy bikes, Etch A Sketches, cars and other products. These are traditional Republican strongholds where Bush won big in 2004 and Hillary Rodham Clinton scored well in the Democratic primary earlier this year.

These counties have some of the most difficult economic conditions in the nation. They are overwhelmingly white, blue-collar and conservative.

Voters crossed over in 2006

In 2006, these voters took their anger out on Ohio Republicans at every level — the U.S. Senate, the governor, state legislators, mayors and city councils. A USA TODAY analysis found that high-unemployment counties in Ohio were far more likely to swing from Republican in 2004 to Democrat in 2006. The swing was 5 percentage points greater in counties that had unemployment 1 percentage point or more above the state average.

"The issue that matters here is jobs," says Coshocton Mayor Steve Mercer, a Republican. "That's what will determine if John McCain can hold onto the Bush margins of 2004."