Democratic Senate challenger Mark Begich is clinging to a slim 814 votes over incumbent Sen. Ted Stevens as Alaskan officials continue to count about 30,000 outstanding ballots.
If the Anchorage mayor can hang on, the Democrats will not only pad their majority in the Senate, but block a possible route for Gov. Sarah Palin to make a prompt return to the national stage.
The Alaska Senate battle pits Begich against Stevens, a Republican and currently the longest serving member of the Senate.
Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for the Republican National Senatorial Committee, said there is a "great chance" that the 40-year Senate veteran will pull ahead and win.
But if Stevens prevails in the vote, he faces possible expulsion from the Senate. He was convicted just days before the election for failing to list hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of appliances and construction that was done on his home for free.
It is possible that Stevens could end his long Senate career by retiring rather than being expelled.
"Certainly that's an option," said Fisher.
If Stevens wins the election but is expelled or resigns, it will require Alaska to call a special election and the GOP will have to come up with a new candidate.
"Boy, I don't know who," Fisher said. "We haven't looked that far ahead."
Fisher said there is a "deep bench" of potential Senate candidates in Alaska.
That bench would be upended, however, if Palin decided she wanted to run.
"She has obviously made remarks on that. ... She's one of the most popular governors in the country and a Democrat would have a hard time running against her," Fisher said.
Palin, fresh from the presidential campaign trail, indicated this week that she might be tempted to run for the Senate "if it were acknowledged up there [Alaska] that I could be put to better use for my state in the U.S. Senate."
An early rematch against Palin is not something the Democrats want to think about right now.
"That's several hypotheticals down the road and I wouldn't want to speculate," said Matthew Miller, spokesman for the Democratic National Senatorial Committee.
"Our guy is ahead right now and we're cautiously optimistic that we're going to win," Miller said.
The counting of ballots is expected to be completed some time next week.
The Alaskan Senate seat is one of three that are still being decided 10 days after the voting ended.
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