Republicans enter the home stretch of the 2014 campaign favored to retake the Senate, based simply on the number of paths they have to 51 votes.
Fighting on heavily Republican terrain, GOP candidates have built on expected advantages in a handful of deeply red states to threaten incumbents across the South and beyond. They’re also moving into what was Obama territory, particularly Iowa and Colorado, while solidifying their chances in states including Arkansas and Alaska.
But just enough wild cards remain in the deck to keep Republicans from early celebrations. Surprising developments in Kansas and Georgia – and even continued uncertainty in Mitch McConnell’s race in Kentucky – are keeping the majority in play for Democrats in the final push.
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Below are the latest race ratings from the ABC News Political Unit, with Democrats listed on the left and Republicans on the right:
TOSS UP: 5 total
Georgia: Nunn vs. Perdue**
Iowa: Braley vs. Ernst
Kansas: Orman*** vs. Roberts (i)
Louisiana: Landrieu (i) vs. Cassidy, Maness**
North Carolina: Hagan (i) vs. Tillis
LEAN DEMOCRATIC: 1 total
New Hampshire: Shaheen (i) vs. Brown
LEAN REPUBLICAN: 4 total
Alaska: Begich (i) vs. Sullivan
Arkansas: Pryor (i) vs. Cotton
Colorado: Udall (i)* vs. Gardner
Kentucky: Grimes vs. McConnell (i)
LIKELY DEMOCRATIC: 4 total
Michigan: Peters vs. Land
Minnesota: Franken (i) vs. McFadden
Oregon: Merkley (i) vs. Wehby
Virginia: Warner (i) vs. Gillespie
LIKELY REPUBLICAN: 2 total
South Dakota: Weiland vs. Rounds vs. Pressler****
West Virginia: Tennant vs. Capito
SOLID DEMOCRATIC: 7 total
Delaware: Coons (i) vs. Wade
Hawaii: Schatz (i) vs. Cavasso
Illinois: Durbin (i) vs. Oberweis
Massachusetts: Markey (i) vs. Herr
New Jersey: Booker (i) vs. Bell
New Mexico: Udall (i) vs. Weh
Rhode Island: Reed (i) vs. Zaccaria
SOLID REPUBLICAN: 13 total
Alabama: Sessions (unopposed)
Idaho: Mitchell vs. Risch (i)
Maine: Bellows vs. Collins (i)
Mississippi: Childers vs. Cochran (i)
Montana: Curtis vs. Daines
Nebraska: Domina vs. Sasse
Oklahoma: Silverstein vs. Inhofe (i)
Oklahoma: Johnson vs. Lankford
South Carolina: Dickerson vs. Scott (i)
South Carolina: Hutto vs. Graham (i)
Tennessee: Ball vs. Alexander (i)
Texas: Alameel vs. Cornyn (i)
Wyoming: Hardy vs. Enzi (i)
* (i) signifies the incumbent.
** Georgia and Louisiana Senate races likely headed to runoff.
*** Orman is an Independent candidate.
**** Pressler is an Independent candidate.
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