Transcript for Wisconsin Reporter: 'Limit' to Ryan's Influence on Ticket
It is -- state we can talk about that much and I but it isn't he stayed in its Wisconsin Craig Gilbert is a reporter. In Wisconsin -- is joining us I believe via Skype from Milwaukee -- -- -- what you. So one of our -- on the set Walter Shapiro from Yahoo! News likes he's Callender sixty so he likes to use the term five. What is the -- your picking up in Wisconsin to -- -- is looking like a winner. Well he -- Pres Obama went into this race tonight having -- in almost all the public polling in September and October but you know the margins varied in the margins will matter among other things because we have an incredibly close. And unpredictable senate race and so. You know that race looks very different in a 5050 presidential race -- it does if Obama wins this state by -- for five point so that's all bears watching Tom. Whatever happens to be a lot closer than it was in 2008 win. I think Obama slipped more counties from red to blue in Wisconsin. That he didn't any state in the country so this is to be more like 2004 -- whatever happens and in the it's not going to be a transcendent victory for Barack Obama he does what. Craig. A lot of Republicans did believe that that Wisconsin had a transcendent moment to use your term there during the recall effort saying that. This prove -- that the Republican wins in 2010 -- in a fluke. That indeed Republicans are here to stay they have a turnout machine they say that can keep this state ran. What are you seeing and hearing from the ground about that turnout operation and whether that is something. -- could actually. Make a difference here. For for Mitt Romney. -- I think it's real and it's not just the turnout operation it's also the kind of intensity. It's an overused term the Republican base -- I mean there are parts of Wisconsin. -- just deliver really amazing margins. Four Republican candidates everybody votes and everybody votes Republican so that's. Part of the fabric here and that's you know one of the positives Republicans -- along with Paul -- on the ticket along -- -- these recent victories. But you know you can also kind of over read too much into the recall -- you know there was an exit poll in that recall election that showed that even the people that voted in the recall. Favored Barack Obama for Mitt Romney over president but a lot of them are rejected the recall process and so about it it was. One is six walker voters said they favored Obama for president so. Other recall was a signal but it only told you so much about November. Craig guides you measure -- -- second ago which it has there been a Paul Ryan factor in Wisconsin. In the general election and if so what has been. Yeah I think it's this kind of on the margins I think it does help. Pop up Republican voters. You know he wasn't a statewide figure obviously he was represented 18 that the state Yasser ran a lot of TV ads in this congressional district. In two big media markets Milwaukee and Madison. You're in Wisconsin. I think that you know net. He's his ratings are if you look at the exit polls tonight a little bit more positive than negative but I think again -- a limit to its impact. On the ticket he was here a fair amount but he also you know became a more polarizing figure in Wisconsin naturally as he became better known to the rest of the state outside his congressional district. And -- found it. What do you think we're gonna learn about. This the senate race obviously also getting a great deal of attention here Tommy Thompson. Against Tammy Baldwin there a lot of implications. Folks are saying for what that would mean for Wisconsin going forward. Very liberal -- Tammy Baldwin Tommy Thompson of course in his seventies coming from -- different era of the Republican Party. Is it is that your sense here that in this race is going to -- the presidential or are we gonna see maybe a split decision. Well I answers both in -- sense is it's not an Amir it is much that'll -- in more than we once thought I mean at the beginning of the year if you looked at the polling. Los across over lots of ticket splitters a lot of Obama voters supporting Tommy Thompson and then these two races kind of converged as they both tightened -- And now I think Tommy Thompson is still running a little bit ahead of Mitt Romney but not as much as he wants. -- and so I think Tommy Thompson needs the presidential race to be very competitive for him to overcome. On Obama's -- I think we're gonna see less ticket splitting -- we once thought I think this state is pretty polarized along. Along party lines and in the ticket splitting hasn't disappeared. But and so we can not since we could very easily get a split outcome. But it's not like it was ten years ago or fifteen years -- for twenty years ago when Tommy Thompson was reaping a lot of conservative Democrats and independent voters. -- thank you very -- tat -- we appreciate it. Thank you.
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