Will Jobs Report Sink Democrats' Emotions After Convention?

Matthew Dowd discusses campaign metrics after the completion of the Democratic National Convention.
3:00 | 09/06/12

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Transcript for Will Jobs Report Sink Democrats' Emotions After Convention?
Joining us now to talk about all things final day. Matthew Dowd is with us from dateline ever live feed thinking that the majority. Thank you have been arrested event the -- the nets who part of the who could -- -- -- itself we've seen excerpts of president Obama's speech it sounds like what he's saying -- you know. Stick with me -- -- does -- need to make things better it's not going to be awesome and it's gonna hurt a little bit but. You believed in me before believed in me again since it was bad enough started today. Well I -- what you've seen is actually I think if Democrats and the president can't -- good job of building -- Michelle Obama started leaning into it. Bill Clinton leaned -- -- -- more basically saying. We never thought it was going to be easy it was since he came into -- -- difficult time that I did. And now I think president Barack Obama's gonna take one step further and basically say we're on the right path for doing the right thing. Things are good today but to stick with because if you say and have taken a step further I think that -- only message in this environment he can't he can't oversell it. Even the people in this crowd believe we're better -- than four years ago the countries that are off. Undecided voters in Ohio Virginia Florida don't believe that facilities he'd understands that fine line. Matthew you're involved in the bush campaign obviously two dozen or very high level how how difficult is it -- different is it. In unity in a challenger vs that it pulpit wrapping up messages for a -- well it's it's the whole campaign is much more difficult. And and I have actually had this conversation with Robert Gibbs and David Axelrod and I warned them long long ago that I said that campaign for re elect. It's not it's fun it's all it becomes work that challenges that would take the hill and everybody's excited enthusiastic and if -- seen from the Democrats and the president. It's heat in the hill is a lot harder -- a lot different emotion can take in the hill and I think they you've seen that I think again it's and a masterful job at the convention. But I think the president as we talked about it's going to be faced with another as an incumbent. The jobs report tomorrow and that's one of the things as a challenge you don't have to faced with so he can have a great convention. And now after the jobs report could put water in the gas and heavy that they -- And you know you don't have any control over that and that's part of the thing about -- for reelection. But. Point it's. That it's the Obama campaign. They feel like the people charging that -- everyday added that -- that Romney campaign in many -- has been reacting to. Whatever the Obama debated -- -- reacting to changes in the environment so that that money they need to be getting more offense oriented friends and eating well I. Take you would expect them come Monday. Or maybe even Sunday. It's sort of some some major initiative some major thing that we -- -- -- don't know that they're gonna say we're gonna try to force them back on their heels of metal on metal I think it would I'm sure hope. Not for the country but for their campaign that the job numbers are bad to that he used that as a lips but I think September. Interestingly September usually -- that -- the mistakes. And it's how you either. Don't know it and it's trips you up or you how you here. Handle it helps you and in October the month of debates but -- September it's as well somebody make a mistake -- admit Romney's campaign. Forced the president to make a mistake and they take advantage of -- So what is it theory on balance we are now we're essentially quietly been -- talk about some of the book the book about how. Maybe there's no outs left however there's a -- there's a sense of the Obama campaign that this is a good moment that they've been riding -- -- of winning streak they have the convention at the -- number comes their way that maybe they're there they're -- do you think it's possible that they -- -- -- pull away at after the convention. Yes thank you actually think it's probable that they get some -- three or four maybe five point. I think -- that he gave -- truth serum after this convention if he gets a good speech tonight the president. And they don't get about they're going to be disappointed by I have to believe that after the Republicans didn't get much and they are the Democrats have had in many people's mind -- successful and to the benefit about that's not as problematic for the question becomes -- I think they'll get about how sustainable it. If -- gone a week for ten days -- Obviously don't know the answer that he could be a situation where locked in -- two -- three point. -- of three point race and that's a big advantage for any company. It's very difficult for a challenger to come from behind. Only when it's done in the in modern presidential history come from behind after the conventions Ron Reagan -- An eighty -- they I think they would like to see -- three -- four point lead. How important is it for Mitt Romney to put that vision -- Out there. You know this is what Democrats are saying about the -- Republican Convention is that it was heavy on criticism of Obama very light on what his vision was going to be and what that path said. -- forward. -- -- -- This well maybe I think. At the crucial question I think they campaign has been premised on the idea the environment of the country it's -- -- elected you know elected challenges to defeat the president as long -- they make few mistakes and running these campaign that's. It will happen they're going to be faced within a week yourself if the president takes a slightly but they can't run a campaign anymore -- they're gonna have to be something different and that they may have to do different. It's lay out a forward looking did you not say. Right now asked the question are you better off -- were. Were four years ago but really say that compared contracted conditions that they could -- they could have run a nine month campaign and be sitting -- now losing. And they know they can't just win by not making a mistake. Now on the -- behind us the Foo Fighters will have lots of entertainment like that throughout the night the celebrity quotient. Always out pretty hot shots at democratic advances particularly in its not Chester Republican Convention. That you finally you -- jobs report. He's come out every month it's only a couple of left though. Do you get the sense that these numbers that are enough -- change perceptions. Of the economy don't we know roughly where the unemployment rate is going to beat it feels like we're in the sense of Italy through the economy yes it'll be better maybe a little bit but not. It -- terrific it's -- the disease efforts at Israeli government -- tomorrow where you can actually say while the economies back. Well I think -- if the number is something close to. Close to 200000 or plus 200000 I think that -- that people say well I heard all this message to stick with us figure that also they get a really good jobs report. If it somewhere between -- 1005860000. I think it has little to no effect if it's below -- 100000. It could totally dampened which is happening -- date -- -- likelihood he probably has little at this point time. Little to no effect unless it's a huge lift echoes in line with the message from tonight. Regardless what number is up last one that can influence voters and by the time we get the October report. Pat -- voters liberty locked in mind what this economy is right they're getting better it's getting wizards. I think this one absent some crazy number and this when is it. And and you have a debate on October 30 two days later I think that debate act -- there will determine much more about what happened this election that and in October 5 dot com. ABC's backed out look at sharp -- sharper thank you several Anchorage it.

This transcript has been automatically generated and may not be 100% accurate.

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