Economy and Ground Game Alike Give Obama an Advantage in Ohio

There are sharp divisions among groups, again with comparisons to 2004 instructive. While Obama is losing white voters by 7 points, Kerry lost them by 12. While Kerry won 84 percent of Ohio's black voters, Obama's winning them essentially unanimously -- 98 percent. Bush won married women by 20 points in 2004; they're dividing about evenly now (and are substantially more worried than their husbands about the family's finances).

And while young voters favored Kerry by a 14-point margin, they're even more of a mainstay for Obama; he holds a 2-1 lead among likely voters under 30, compared with a dead heat among those 30 and older.

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Relying on young voters is a risk for Obama (as it was for Kerry) given their uncertain turnout. What's essential, then, is his ability to battle McCain to a standstill among over-30s, a group Kerry lost by 7 points. And that has much to do with the economy.

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Among all registered voters, 53 percent call the economy the single most important issue in their vote, much like the national figure, with all other answers in the single digits. And among likely voters, those focused on the economy favor Obama by 61-34 percent; among those who name any other issue, McCain leads, 57-38 percent.

Eighty-six percent of registered voters in Ohio are worried about the economy's direction, and 70 percent are worried about their own families' finances -- two more groups in which Obama has broad advantages. His lead peaks among those who are "very" worried, and that high-level worry is strongest in the important northeast region.

Economic worry at the personal, household level also peaks, naturally, among lower-income Ohioans. And notably, Obama holds a 10-point edge among working-class whites in the state, those with household incomes under $50,000 a year.

Obama's trouble connecting with working-class whites helped Hillary Clinton beat him in the Ohio primary. But now, among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who'd preferred Clinton for the nomination, 82 percent prefer Obama to McCain. That's 10 points better than Obama's support among Clinton Democrats nationally.

There's another way in which the economy throws its weight in vote preferences: Ohioans divide closely on whether they care more about the candidates' personal qualities or their positions on the issues. Among likely voters more focused on personal qualities, McCain has a 62-34 percent lead. But among those more concerned with the issues -- the economy chief among them -- it's 65-30 percent for Obama.

Ohio isn't the only state where economic concern is boosting Obama. The same effect has appeared in national ABC/Post polls since Sept. 22, in an ABC/Post Virginia poll Sept. 21, and in a variety of state polls from other sources.