Head-to-head on issues, in this survey Obama leads McCain by 13 points, 52-39 percent, in trust to handle the economy, and by similar margins on creating jobs and in trust to handle taxes, a point of sharp contention between them. They're even in trust to handle a major crisis, and McCain's usual edges in trust to handle terrorism and the Iraq war are single-digit margins here. Obama's +8 on energy policy.
Personal attributes also differentiate the two. Obama connects especially in trust to bring needed change to Washington, a 2-1 lead over McCain; and in better understanding the economic problems people are having -- potentially an essential point given the level of concern, and a 53-35 percent Obama advantage, again much like the national figure.
Obama also has an 8-point edge as the stronger leader; and the two run closer -- about evenly -- on who better "shares your values," an opening for McCain.
McCain's best line of attack continues to be Obama's experience; while 52 percent of registered voters say he has the kind of experience it takes to serve effectively as president, a very substantial 46 percent say he does not. That result more than anything explains why Obama's advantage on the economy and other issues and attributes doesn't translate into a bigger lead over McCain in vote preference.
McCain, though, has, if anything, an even greater vulnerability of his own: Fifty-three percent of registered voters think he'd lead the country in the same direction as Bush.
These, in sum, provide a blueprint to the campaigns' likely approaches: McCain to stress the experience issue, to try to capitalize on his competitiveness on shared values and to press his advantage on trust to handle terrorism, Bush's winning issue in 2004; and Obama, to push hard on the economy, change and Bush.
One somewhat delicate point in the economic debate is the financial plan passed by Congress on Friday. Both candidates supported it, but Ohioans divide -- 45 percent in favor, 49 percent opposed. (It was similar nationally last week.) The plan's opponents in Ohio split evenly between the two candidates; supporters favor Obama by 12 points.
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