Finally, there are those for whom the election already is over.
ABC/Post tracking data so far find that 10 percent of likely voters have voted, which comports with tallies of the early vote so far (15 million out of, say, 130 million voters is 12 percent).
Vote preference among these early voters is 59-40 percent, Obama-McCain, widening to 68-31 percent in the 16 battleground states and 71-28 percent in the eight toss-ups states as designated by ABC News' Political Unit (Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia).
Nationally an additional 25 percent say they will vote between now and Election Day -- for a total intended early/absentee vote of 35 percent, compared with about 22 percent in 2004 and 15 percent in 2000.
Early voters (including those who intend to do it) are not disproportionately first-time voters. They are disproportionately Westerners, black, urban and single women, all pro-Obama groups; and seniors, who divide more evenly.
METHODOLOGY:Interviews for this ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll were conducted by telephone Oct. 25-28, 2008, among a random national sample of 1,316 likely voters, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a 2.5-point error margin for the full sample. Questions 7a and 32 were asked Oct. 27-28 among 656 likely voters; those results have a 4-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
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