McCain's had more difficulties clearing his hurdles.
Fewer than half last week, 47 percent, thought he would lead the country in a different direction than Bush, a problem given Bush's 23 percent approval rating. Never in the campaign has McCain managed to cross the 50 percent mark on offering a new direction.
As reported Monday morning, while 21 percent call the race of the candidates an issue in their vote, more, 48 percent call the candidates' age an issue -- and concern about age works against McCain in a way that concern about race does not.
Age concerns also exacerbate the Palin problem; 44 percent of all likely voters say her presence on the GOP ticket makes them less likely to support McCain. That's risen sharply since September -- and among those concerned about the age of the candidates, it jumps to 61 percent.
Obama leads among men and women alike in this poll, with no significant gender gap; that's a change from the last three elections, in which Democratic candidates won women but lost men (Clinton by a scant point in 1996). The last Democrat to win men and women alike was Clinton in 1992; the last Republican, George H.W. Bush in 1988.
Obama's lead among single women, a core Democratic group, is similar to Kerry's in 2004, but he's doing better with single men, and especially with married men and women alike -- again, with the economy as the motivator.
While McCain's lead among whites is smaller than Republican margins in this group since 2000, Obama's advantage among blacks is larger -- near-unanimous 98 percent support, compared with Kerry's 88 percent and Al Gore's 90 percent. Obama also has a 70-28 percent advantage among Hispanics, a level unseen for a Democrat since 1996.
Obama and McCain run closely in this survey among working-class whites, those with less than $50,000 in annual income, 49-46 percent.
A bigger difference from 2004 is the narrowed gap among better-off whites. McCain leads among middle-income whites by 14 points; Bush won them four years ago them by 24. And McCain leads by just 8 points among upper-income whites, a group Bush won by 26 points.
Obama's attracting 11 percent of Republicans, compared with Kerry's 6 percent in 2004; those chiefly are moderate or the few liberal Republicans, among whom Obama's winning 24 percent, double Kerry's level. McCain's 9 percent of Democrats is more similar to Bush's 11 percent four years ago.
Obama also is supported by 20 percent of conservatives, ahead of Kerry's 15 percent; those chiefly include conservative Democrats staying with the party.
The large number of interviews in the tracking poll allows a look at some small groups.
One is Jews; just 2 percent of likely voters, they divide by 67-31 percent between Obama and McCain, the best for a Republican since George H. W. Bush's 35 percent in 1988.
Another group of some interest is the cell-phone only population, which ABC and the Post have been including in daily tracking. They're a broadly pro-Obama group, by 62-35 percent.
Indeed in landline-only interviews, the Obama-McCain race stands at 52-45 percent among likely voters. The inclusion of cell-only respondents makes it 53-44.
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