Daily Tracking Poll: Obama Leads on Election Eve; Economy Makes the Difference
Obama Leads McCain 53-44 in Latest ABC News/Washington Post Poll
Obama Maintains Advantage Over McCain in Ground Game
Finally there's the ground game.
Updating Monday morning's report, 28 percent of all likely voters say they've been contacted directly by the Obama campaign, 22 percent by the McCain side -- an Obama advantage, but for both sides tens of millions of personal contacts by both campaigns, in person or by phone, e-mail or text message.
Contacts are higher in the 18 battleground states and five-toss-up states (Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana) as identified by the ABC News Political Unit.
McCain campaign contacts are reported by 34 percent in the battlegrounds and 35 percent in the toss-ups; Obama contacts, by 39 and 36 percent, respectively.
What matters, though, is not just the number of contacts but their targeting and/or effectiveness. Obama has a very large advantage nationally -- but one that shrinks somewhat in the battleground states, and disappears in the five closest.
As the table shows, nationally, among all likely voters who report a contact by the Obama campaign, 70 percent support him, while among those who report a McCain contact, 53 percent support him.
In the battleground states, Obama is supported by 66 percent of those who've been contacted by his campaign, McCain by 54 percent of those who've heard from him.
But in the five toss-up states, Obama is supported by 56 percent of his contacts, McCain by 60 percent of his. Maybe that's why they call them toss-ups.
METHODOLOGY: Interviews for this ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll were conducted by telephone Oct. 30-Nov. 2, 2008, among a random national sample of 2,470 likely voters, including landline and cell-phone-only respondents. Results have a 2-point error margin for the full sample. Questions 24 and 45 were asked Nov.1-2 among 1,247 likely voters; those results have a 3-point error margin. Questions 21 and 42 were asked Oct. 31-Nov. 2 among 1,877 likely voters; those results have a 2.5-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.
Do you have more information about this topic? If so, please click here to contact the editors of ABC News.
