Discontent Buffets the Nation; Bush Craters, Obama Benefits

Obama now leads by 10 points among independents, 51-41 percent, and runs a competitive 51-46 percent against McCain among married women. White Catholics, however, favor McCain by 54-41 percent – worth watching, as they've backed the winner in each of the last eight presidential elections.

Obama makes it back, perhaps surprisingly, among non-evangelical white Protestants; normally a Republican group, they now tilt toward the Democrat – for the first time in ABC/Post polls this cycle – by 53-44 percent.

Among all white voters, McCain leads Obama by 7 points, 52-45 percent; that, however, is a bit less than the average Republican advantage among whites in presidential elections. Obama makes it back with 95 percent of blacks, as well as clear majority support among Hispanics.

There's a big gender gap. McCain and Obama are even among men; among women, who are more apt to be Democrats, Obama holds an 18-point lead, tying his biggest of the campaign. And Obama holds his best support to date, 81 percent, among sought-after Clinton Democrats – Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents who preferred Hillary Clinton for the nomination.

Again, though, there are the movables, disproportionately likely to include some of the swing groups – 20 percent of white Catholics and 22 percent of independents. Movables may be a hard sell; while they could change their minds, half say it's "pretty unlikely." But movable they are, and until they settle, McCain may be down – but not out.

METHODOLOGY:This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by telephone Oct. 8-11, 2008, among a random sample of 1,101 adults including oversamples of African Americans and 18- to 29-year-olds (weighted to their correct share of the population), for a total of 150 black respondents and 201 18- to 29-year olds. Results among all adults and the 945 registered voters have a 3-point error margin. Results among the 766 likely voters surveyed have a 3.5-point error margin. Sampling, data collection and tabulation by TNS of Horsham, PA.

Click here for a PDF with charts and full questionnaire.

-- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487. -- This embed didnt make it to copy for story id = 6017487.
Page
  • 1
  • |
  • 2
  • |
  • 3
  • |
  • 4
Join the Discussion
You are using an outdated version of Internet Explorer. Please click here to upgrade your browser in order to comment.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
You Might Also Like...