Holiday Spending Plans Plummet, Signaling Dismal Retail Season

CUTBACK -- A mere 8 percent of Americans plan to spend more on holiday gifts, a third of its record high in 1985. Fifty-one percent say they'll spend less, up 15 points from last year. That includes three in 10 (31 percent) who say they'll spend "a lot" less.

Plans to cut spending peak among women -- 57 percent say they'll cut back, vs. 45 percent of men. And in a trouble sign for children's retailers in particular, 56 percent of parents plan to spend less on holiday gifts this year, up 23 points from last year -- one of the sharpest pullbacks in any group.

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Moreover, while plans to cut back peak in the middle-income ranges, 46 percent of people with more than $100,000 in household income also plan to spend less -- up very sharply from 26 percent last year. That suggests high-end retailers will not be immune.

In data since 1985, this is only the second year in which anywhere near this number of Americans have said they'd cut their holiday spending. The last was 1991, when fourth-quarter retail sales were flat -- their worst performance in the past generation.

DOLLAR FIGURE -- As noted, Americans on average say they'll spend $716 on holiday gifts, sharply down from an inflation-adjusted $1,228 in a 2005 ABC News poll. The number is less precise than it looks -- it's hard to estimate actual spending in advance -- but it does indicate the extent to which consumers are pulling in their horns.

Spending plans in this measure are down among women (50 percent lower than in 2005), down by 47 percent in $100,000-plus households, and down especially steeply, by 61 percent, among seniors.

SALES -- While majorities across the board say they're likely to wait for items to go on sale, this, too, peaks in some groups -- among women (74 percent are looking for sales, compared with 60 percent of men) and shoppers under age 55. Again, even among well-off shoppers, large numbers are looking for sales -- 73 percent in $100,000-plus households and 80 percent in those with incomes between $50,000 and $100,000.