Confidence Hits Another New Low as Recession's Officially Recognized
Ninety-Three Percent Say the National Economy's in Bad Shape
TREND – Before this year the CCI's low was -50 in February 1992; in 2008, as noted, it's matched or exceeded that level eight times. The current -54 marks the third new low this year in nearly 1,200 consecutive weeks of polling.
The index has averaged -42 for the year, 31 points from last year's -11 average, the sharpest year-over-year drop on record. 2008's average is surpassed only by -44 in 1992. That compares with its long-term average of -11 and a high of +38 in January 2000.
GROUPS – The CCI has been negative across demographic groups for 23 straight weeks, but with differences, mostly influenced by income levels. It's -27 among people with the highest incomes (matching their low point from Nov. 16) compared with -80 among those with the lowest incomes; -50 among those who've been to college (their lowest since March 1991) vs. -67 among high-school dropouts; -72 among blacks vs. -48 among whites; and -56 among women vs. -49 among men (matching their low from Aug. 17). The index is -74 among renters vs. -46 among homeowners (matching a record low).
Partisan differences are the narrowest they've been since July 2001, with the index among Republicans now at -40, their lowest. It's -59 among Democrats and -54 among independents.
Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:
NATIONAL ECONOMY – Seven percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, matching its low set two weeks ago and in late 1991 and early 1992; it was 8 percent last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000.
PERSONAL FINANCES – Forty-two percent say their own finances are excellent or good, matching its worst ever on March 14, 1993; it was 43 percent last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000.
BUYING CLIMATE – Twenty percent say it's an excellent or good time to buy things; it was 21 percent last week. The best was 57 percent on Jan. 16, 2000. The worst was 18 percent this Oct. 19, Aug. 10 and Aug. 24.
METHODOLOGY – Interviews for the ABC News Consumer Comfort Index are reported in a four-week rolling average. This week's results are based on telephone interviews among a random national sample of 1,000 adults in the four weeks ending Dec. 1, 2008. The results have a 3-point error margin. Field work by ICR-International Communications Research of Media, Pa.
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