Consumer Confidence 2009: Not a Happy New Year

Twenty-six percent rate the buying climate positively, creeping up from its low of 18 percent in mid-October. However that's still 12 points lower than the long-term average. Positive ratings of the buying climate averaged 23 percent last year, the worst on record.

Forty-five percent rate their personal finances positively, the same as last week and 12 points off the long-term average. Half or fewer have rated their finances positively for 24 straight weeks, the worst such run since 1992-93.

TREND – While the CCI hasn't advanced much from its low, at least it's not getting worse, as it did so often in 2008. Before last year the index's all-time low was -50 in February 1992. Last year it fell that low or lower 10 times, setting or matching record lows four times. It was -50 or below steadily from mid-November to mid-December.

As noted, the CCI averaged -50 in Q4 2008, the worst quarter on record (previously -47 in Q1 1992). For the entire year it was -42, 2 points better than its worst year on record, 1992. Its best yearlong average was +29 in 2000.

GROUPS – The CCI has been negative across demographic groups for 28 weeks straight, surpassed only by a 33-week stretch in 1991-92. Income as usual marks the biggest gap; the index is -26 among people with the highest incomes compared with -77 among those with the lowest. It's -42 among people who've been to college vs. -68 among high-school dropouts, -56 among women vs. -40 among men, -65 among renters vs. -43 among homeowners and -46 among whites vs. -61 among blacks.

The index is -36 among Republicans this week, -44 among independents and -62 among Democrats. The 26-point difference between Republicans and Democrats compares with an average gap of 41 points for 2008 and 33 points since 1990.

Here's a closer look at the three components of the ABC News CCI:

NATIONAL ECONOMY – Six percent of Americans rate the economy as excellent or good, tying its record low last week. The highest was 80 percent on Jan. 16, 2000.

PERSONAL FINANCES – Forty-five percent say their own finances are excellent or good, the same as last week. The best was 70 percent, last reached in January 2000. The worst was 42 percent Dec. 1, 2008 and March 14, 1993.