Confidence Stuck in Neutral as Obama Focuses on Jobs

Dec. 8, 2009 — -- With the Obama administration accelerating its focus on jobs today, consumer confidence is stuck in neutral, near record low territory.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -47 on its scale of +100 to -100, trapped in a narrow 2-point range for the past five weeks and only 7 points above its worst rating, -54 reached in late January.

Click here for a PDF with charts and data table.

President Obama unveiled a jobs creation program today following his jobs summit last Friday – logical given the 10 percent unemployment rate. Consumer confidence will likely remain in the doldrums until more jobs are created than lost; the unemployment rate is one of the strongest economic correlates of consumer sentiment.

INDEX – Of the three components of the CCI, 44 percent of Americans now rate their personal finances positively, 13 points below average and 5 points from the record low in June. It's been below a majority for 30 weeks straight and all but two weeks this year.

Positive ratings of the buying climate, at 28 percent, are the same as last week and the best of the year. Still, that is 9 points below average and under 30 percent for a record 91 weeks, not what retailers want to hear at the peak of the holiday shopping season.

At just 8 percent, positive ratings of the economy match their yearly average and are 30 points below their long-term average.

TREND – At -47, the index has not moved up or down significantly in five weeks. In five of the last 16 weeks (including last week and two weeks before that) the CCI reached -45 but was unable to get any better.

The CCI is in very bad shape in historical terms; it has averaged -48 in 2009 and is on pace for its worst full year in 24 years of weekly polls. That compares with the long-term average of -12, -42 last year, -44 in 1992 – its worst full year – and +29 in 2000 – its best year.

Confidence has been below -40 for a record 85 weeks and hasn't seen positive territory since March 2007.