POLL: Confidence Gains, Though Still Troubled
Despite economic woes, consumer confidence advanced to best since late January.
March 11, 2008 — -- Despite the economy's woes, consumer confidence has advanced to its best since late January, thanks to an improved outlook on the buying climate and personal finances.
It's hardly good: The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -30 on its scale of +100 to -100, far below its 22-year average of -10. But it gained 4 points this week and a net of 7 points in the last two weeks, after dropping by 17 points in January and February.
The shift is unusual: The CCI has gained 7 or more points in two weeks just 21 times in 22 years of weekly polls. At the same time, its 17-point fall was its second-steepest on record, and it's been at or below -30 for six weeks straight, unseen since 1993.
Oil and gas prices set records in the past week and February saw a loss of jobs for the second straight month.
INDEX -- The ABC index is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. The last two weeks' improvement has most to do with a better outlook on personal finances and the buying climate.
Thirty percent rate the buying climate positively, up 5 points in two weeks; still it's been at or below this level for nine weeks straight, the longest stretch since 23 weeks from June through November 1993. It's 6 points below the 2007 average and 8 points off the long-term average.
Fifty-three percent rate their personal finances positively -- up 4 points in two weeks -- but 6 points below the 2007 average and 4 points off the long-term average, 57 percent.
In the lowest of the three gauges, just 22 percent rate the national economy positively this week. It was 19 percent just three weeks ago, its worst since November 1993. Positive ratings of the economy are down 9 points since January; they've averaged 24 percent this year, well below the 2007 average, 39 percent, and the long-term average, 40 percent.
TREND -- At -30, the CCI has now been in negative double digits for 31 consecutive weeks, a stretch last seen five years ago. It sustained significant falls in four out of five weeks in January and February; that happened just once before, in September to October 1990.
