POLL: Confidence Slouches On Toward End of a Grim Second Quarter

Confidence is on track for its worst quarter since Q1 of 1992.

ByABC News
June 24, 2008, 1:22 PM

June 24, 2008— -- Consumer confidence slouched along this week, on track for its worst quarter since Q1 of 1992. But things have been worse: The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index is off the floor it hit last month, and has inched into the positive zone for the best-off Americans.

The index stands at -43 on its scale of +100 to -100, 33 points below its long-term average in 22 years of weekly polls, although 8 points up from the all-time low it hit a month ago and its best since April 27. It's been at or below -40 for 10 consecutive weeks.

The CCI has fallen sharply the past year and a half, particularly in the last two quarters. It averaged -2 in Q1 of 2007, -9 in Q2, -12 in Q3 and -18 in Q4. That accelerated to -31 in Q1 2008 and -44 this quarter. That it's worst since -47 at the start of 1992.

Consumers have good cause for concern. Gas averaged a record-tying $4.08 a gallon this week and the Case-Shiller Home Price Index dropped 15.3 percent, the biggest annual drop in its 21-year history. It's negative in all 20 metro areas measured, a first.

INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of their current finances, the national economy and the buying climate. Even if off their recent record low, all three are in grave condition. Only one in seven rate the national economy positively, down 17 points from the beginning of this year and 26 points below the long-term average. About half rate the national economy as "poor," the worst since November 1992

Fewer than half rate their personal finances positively for the eighth straight week, the longest streak since the 15 weeks ending in August 1993.

Ratings of the buying climate are close to their all-time lows, hit just last month. Only 23 percent call it a good time to buy things, down 8 points this year and 15 points off the long-term average.

TREND – The index started this year at -20 and tumbled from there. It's dropped 23 points since the start of 2008 and has averaged -37 so far this year, the same as 1991 and 1993. The yearlong worst was -44 in 1992.