POLL: Confidence Back Down; Two Points from Record Low

Just 19 percent of Americans rate the buying climate positively.

ByABC News
February 18, 2009, 11:44 PM

August 5, 2008 — -- On a day when the presidential campaigns debated whether Americans are worse off now than they were four or eight years ago, consumer sentiment gave one answer – coming within a hair of its record low in 22 years of weekly polls.

Indeed one component of the weekly ABC News Consumer Comfort Index – rating the buying climate – matched its low, with just 19 percent of Americans calling it a good time to purchase things they want and need.

Even fewer, 10 percent, say the national economy's in good shape, and fewer than half, 48 percent, say their personal finances are good. Put these together and the CCI stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, down 8 points in the last two weeks.

The index had gained 10 points after hitting a record low -51 on May 25, but then headed down again with an unusual 6-point fall last week. These compare with an average -10 in weekly polls since late 1985, and a high of +38 in January 2000.

A new television ad for John McCain says the country's worse off than it was four years ago; the Obama campaign responded by noting that McCain said in a debate in January that Americans were better off than eight years ago.

The CCI is dramatically worse, using either time period.

Even with easing gas prices, there's plenty of negative economic news to support the public's view. The unemployment rate has risen to its highest in more than five years, and July marked the seventh straight month of job losses, totaling almost half a million jobs this year. Tight credit and slumping home prices continue. Inflation is up.

INDEX – This is the 17th straight week that fewer than a quarter of Americans have rated the buying climate positively, one week shy of its record stretch at that level, during the 1990-91 recession. As noted, only 19 percent now say it's a good time to buy things, tying the record low in May.

Positive ratings of the buying climate are down 12 points this year, and exactly half their long-term average.