POLL: Confidence is Back on Brink of Record Low
Assessments of the buying climate have tied their weakest on record.
August 26, 2008 -- The Democrats at their convention, and the Republicans at theirs, just might want to drop in a word or two about the economy.
The reason: Americans are unhappy about it. In a big way.
Consumer confidence is back this week to a single point from its all-time low in weekly ABC News surveys since 1985. Assessments of the buying climate have tied their weakest on record.
ABC's Consumer Comfort Index stands at -50 on its scale of +100 to -100, a point from its all-time low of -51 on May 25. Just 11 percent say the national economy is in good shape, 18 percent call it a good time to buy things and 46 percent – fewer than half – rate their personal finances positively.
Economic concerns are far and away the top election issue: In a separate ABC News/Washington Post poll this week 43 percent of registered voters called the economy the most important issue in their vote, the most this election cycle. Barack Obama holds an 11-point lead over John McCain on trust to handle it, 50-39 percent.
Gasoline prices, while down 42 cents from mid-July, are still 34 percent higher than last year (currently $3.69 per gallon nationally). And there are other factors: Inflation's up, unemployment's up and home values are down – a reported 15.4 percent drop during the second quarter from a year before.
INDEX – This is the 20th straight week that fewer than a quarter of Americans have said it's an excellent or good time to buy things, the longest such stretch on record.
Positive ratings of the economy, for their part, have been at or below 15 percent for the last 20 weeks. They're down 20 points on the year and 28 points off their long-term average.
Ratings of personal finances, at 46 percent positive, down from 52 percent in July and only 4 points off that all-time low. Traditionally the index's strongest component, ratings of personal finances are down 12 points on the year and 11 points off the long-term average.
TREND – After ending 2007 at -20, 15 points worse than it began the year, the CCI accelerated downward through the beginning of this year to its new record low in May. It improved slightly, but stalled at -41 last month and then faltered, dropping to -50 two weeks ago and again this week. It's been 19 weeks since the index was above -40.
