Consumer Confidence 2009: Not a Happy New Year

Jan. 6, 2009 — -- So much for a happy New Year: In the midst of its worst stretch on record, consumer confidence starts 2009 at its lowest calendar-year opening in 23 years of weekly polls. But there is a faint glimmer in the gloom: slightly better ratings of the buying climate.

The ABC News Consumer Comfort Index stands at -49 on its scale of +100 to -100, unchanged from last week and within sight of its record low, -54 on Dec. 1. It's been -48 or lower since mid-October and -40 or worse since April 20, both low-streak records.

Click here for PDF with charts and data table.

Positive ratings of the national economy this week match their all-time low, 6 percent, set last week. However, ratings of the buying climate, while just 26 percent positive, are their best since March, coinciding with post-Christmas retail discounts and lower gas prices. That comports with a report Tuesday from the International Council of Shopping Centers saying sales got a little lift the last week of December – but remained dismal overall.

The overall view is still grim. The CCI racked up its second worst annual average in 2008 and its worst ever quarter, averaging -50, in Q4. Compare that to its lifetime average, -11 in weekly polls since late 1985, much less its high, +38 in January 2000.

There are good reasons: The U.S. economy officially went into recession in December 2007, the Dow finished 2008 down 35 percent, the economy's shed nearly two million jobs, unemployment is at a 15-year high, home values declined by 12 percent last year, and, though gas prices have eased, they averaged $3.25 in 2008, the highest annual average in federal data since 1991.

INDEX – The CCI is based on Americans' ratings of the economy, their personal finances and the buying climate. Positive ratings of the national economy suffered the most in 2008, falling by 25 points through the course of the year and averaging just 15 percent, 24 points below the long-term average.

Positive ratings of the economy have been in single digits for nine weeks, exceeded only by a 13-week run in early 1992.