63 teams need to keep believing
— -- Monday evening at 7 ET (ESPN/ WatchESPN), the women's basketball world finds out who gets the unenviable roles filled on the men's side by Kansas, Notre Dame and Maryland. That is, the Nos. 2-4 seeds in the region with Goliath.
Just as the Cleveland Regional was the one that teams were hoping to avoid in the men's Big Dance, as it is presided over by undefeated No. 1 Kentucky, Albany is the regional destination of doom on the women's side.
We already know the New York state capital city will have 32-1 UConn as its top seed. The Huskies will be the overall No. 1 seed, and they'll be going for their eighth consecutive Women's Final Four appearance. If the Huskies win on April 7 in Tampa, Florida, it will be their third NCAA title in a row and 10th overall.
Just as Kentucky appears to be a prohibitive favorite entering the men's NCAA tournament, UConn is also very, very likely to win it all on the women's side. However, the Huskies do have one loss this season, as dim as that is in our collective memory: 88-86 in overtime on Nov. 17 at Stanford.
It almost seems like that game came from a different season and somehow accidentally got spliced into the video highlights of this season. To look at that result as evidence that UConn is beatable this season is not necessarily providing false hope, because the bottom line is the Huskies did lose. But it's going to take something pretty special now to derail UConn, which last lost a regional final in 2007.
That was to an LSU team powered by future Olympian and WNBA star center Sylvia Fowles, and it was in Fresno, California. It's a popular lament by those with UConn fatigue that the Huskies never have to leave the Northeast to make the Women's Final Four, but in fact, they have. They were in regionals in Greensboro, North Carolina (2008), Dayton, Ohio (2010), and Lincoln, Nebraska (2014), during their current run of Final Four appearances.
The other seasons, UConn's regionals were in Trenton, New Jersey (2009), Philadelphia (2011), Kingston, Rhode Island (2012), and Bridgeport, Connecticut (2013).
But the reality is, based on how they've typically played all season long wherever they've gone, the idea that the Huskies have relied on or needed any geographical advantage in the NCAA tournament is rather silly. They've consistently earned the right to be as close to "home" as possible, but they've won wherever they've gone.
While the Albany Regional will be considered the end of the line for three teams by much of the viewing public and a media corps weary of conjuring up plausible reasons the Huskies might lose before the Final Four -- foul trouble? Off night by everyone? Perfect game by opponent? -- there are people who absolutely shouldn't believe it's a done deal.
And that's everyone affiliated with not just the Nos. 2-4 seeds in Albany, but all teams in that region. There's no reason for them not to believe sports miracles can happen.
Meanwhile, the rest of the bracket really should have a lot more intrigue -- from who gets the other top-16 seeds and chance to host early rounds, to which top teams get grouped together. (Incidentally, in the everything-old-is-new-again department, there are some folks who are referring to top-16 hosting as a "new idea by the NCAA." Uh, no. It's a previous format that it's best to return to using now.)
Of the top-16 seeds as projected by espnW Bracketologist Charlie Creme, six have never made it to the Women's Final Four in program history. That includes South Carolina, the SEC regular-season co-champion that won the league tournament and like UConn is a No. 1 seed lock. The Gamecocks fell in the Sweet 16 last season; the school's best showing in the NCAA tournament was the 2002 Elite Eight. That, though, was before coach Dawn Staley's makeover of the program began in 2008.
South Carolina has the feel now of a program that will consistently be in the mix of elite-level teams, but the Gamecocks still have to clear a hurdle they never have before.
In terms of familiar faces we've seen in recent Final Fours (other than UConn), Notre Dame and Maryland are the other expected No. 1 seeds. And as projected No. 2s, there are Baylor and Louisville. All have made it to the Final Four at least once in the past three seasons; the Irish are aiming for their fifth consecutive appearance.
Tennessee is also in the No. 2 slot, and while the Lady Vols have 18 appearances in the Final Four, the most recent was 2008. Florida State, the other projected No. 2, has never advanced further than the Elite Eight.
Predicting dark-horse candidates for a trip to Tampa is very difficult before the bracket actually comes out, because matchups are so key in regard to potential upsets.
But could there be the first so-called "mid-major" appearance in the Final Four since 2001, when Missouri State made it? At least one mid-major is projected to be among the top 16, but it's not undefeated Princeton, the Ivy League champion. Instead, it's Atlantic 10 champion George Washington, projected as a No. 4 seed.
However, Princeton, Chattanooga, James Madison, Green Bay, Florida Gulf Coast, Wichita State, Gonzaga, Western Kentucky and Dayton are all mid-majors that have done some impressive things during the season and just might make some noise in the NCAA tournament. Not likely Final Four noise, but still ...
Ultimately, Monday night will be a time for plotting out paths and imagining the most likely and fantastical scenarios. You won't want to miss it.
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