Is AD done in Minnesota? Predicting Adrian Peterson's future

ByJOHN CLAYTON
December 30, 2016, 3:12 PM

— -- Has? Adrian Peterson?played his last game for the? Minnesota Vikings? Peterson could? miss?the Vikings' season finale against the Chicago?Bears, and the team has?a difficult decision to make after the season.

Peterson's powerful legs -- he has rushed for 11,747 yards and 97 touchdowns in his career -- have taken Minnesota to the playoffs four times in his 10 years. The Vikings have a 79-79-1 record since he was drafted No. 7 overall in 2007, and they've won the NFC North three times.

Could the Vikings really say goodbye to one of the best running backs in NFL history, a future Hall of Famer who has been the face of the franchise? It's certainly possible, according to people I've talked to around the league.

Peterson will be 32 years old when the 2017 season begins and his cap hit will be $18 million, which would make him the highest-paid running back in the league -- by far. Minnesota, however, could cut him with no impact against its 2017 cap, as I'll explain later.

I asked five front-office executives for their thoughts on Peterson's future, and what the Vikings should -- and will -- do this offseason. The results give some insight into how the league views aging running backs -- no matter how good they were in the past.?

Check out the execs' answers below in bold,?followed by my takes:

Executive 1:?Try to get Peterson to take a pay cut

"Maybe it's time to move on, but I would see if there is a way to make it work. What I would do is try to take his salary down to around $7 million. I'm thinking that is more than generous for him at his age. It gives him respect for what he has done and shows the organization isn't willing to be too cold. Clearly, though, you can't have him at $18 million."

Here is how Peterson's contract works. He will be entering the final season of three-year, $42 million contract. His base salary is $11.75 million, but none of that is guaranteed. He has a $250,000 workout bonus. He also has a $6 million roster bonus. The team has until Feb. 5 to exercise his base salary or let him go. If the Vikings let him go, he counts nothing against their 2017 cap.

"I might go as high as $8 million out of respect to him," Executive 1 added, "but sometimes I get too sentimental when it comes to these things. One reason to keep him, though, is that if you let him go, the Vikings would have to find two backs."

Executive 2:?Peterson's?salary is far too high

"I'd cut him. I'd cut him because the salary I would offer him he would consider to be an insult, and I don't think you want him to go through that. You don't want to insult someone who has been that important to your franchise."

The Vikings will have?approximately $32 million of cap room in 2017 if the cap goes up to $168 million, so they have flexibility. But they also have a few problems. The offensive line is a mess -- the Vikings are averaging a league-low 3.1 yards per carry this season -- and money and/or draft choices will have to be spent there for any running back to have success.

Starting tackles Matt Kalil and Andre Smith are on injured reserve, and both are free agents this offseason. They have disappointed since being drafted in the top 10, and the Vikings could move on from both. Being in the market for two starting tackles is rough, especially since the Vikings are without a first-round pick after trading it to the Eagles for quarterback Sam Bradford.

"Finding two backs and two tackles without a first-round pick is asking a lot," Executive 1 said.?

Executive 3:?Peterson has declined

"He's older. He's had too many injuries. He's had a lot of wear and tear on the body. He's also missed 29 of his past 49 games dating back to the end of the 2013 season. Having Peterson last year for Teddy Bridgewater was great because it gave [Bridgewater] a ground game to work with even though it took him out of shotgun, which he was more effective [in]. Thanks to Adrian, the Vikings made the playoffs, but it's a different dynamic with Bradford there. He doesn't need an older legend leading the way. He just needs some running offense and better linemen.''

Peterson came back from ACL surgery in 2012 and rushed for 2,097 yards. He rushed for 1,485 yards in 2015 after being suspended most of 2014. After suffering a torn?meniscus in his knee in Week 2?this season, he fought back to return but played in only one more game before sitting out last week's loss to the Packers because of knee and groin injuries. He has averaged only 1.9 yards per carry on his 37 rushes this season. He also has eight fumbles over the past two seasons, seven in 2015.

"Here's the concern I have," Executive 3 said. "He's starting to get too many fumbles. Fumbles. Injuries. Missed games. That concerns me."

Executive 4: Peterson's age is more than a number

"You can't take the position that you pay for what a player has done for you in the past. You pay for a player can do for you now and in the future. Well, there isn't much future in 32-year-old running backs. Just look at the numbers during the years.''

The last running back to gain 1,000 yards at 32 or older?was Ricky Williams for the? Miami Dolphins?in 2009. He had 1,121 yards, but the Dolphins didn't make the playoffs. Thirty-two-year-old Mike Anderson had 1,014 yards for the Broncos?in 2005, helping Denver reach?the AFC title game. Emmitt Smith had 1,021 yards in 2001 on a Dallas Cowboys team that went 5-11. James Brooks of the Cincinnati Bengals had 1,004 yards in 1990 on a team that went 9-7.

Since 1990, those are the only four tailbacks to rush for at least 1,000 yards at age 32 or older.

"Sure, John Riggins did it twice in his mid-30s, Franco Harris and Walter Payton each did it once when they were 32 or older, but that was in the 1980s," Executive 4?said. "This is a different time now. Since Adrian came into the league, very few backs average 20 carries a game for a season, and very few get over 320 carries. If you noticed, Riggins, Harris and even Ottis Anderson averaged less than 4 yards a carry. You do that now getting about 260 carries, and you're not getting to 1,000."

Thirty-three-year-old? Frank Gore?of the? Indianapolis Colts?could join this list if he gets 36 yards against the Jaguars in Week 17. The Colts, who haven't had a 1,000-yard rusher since 2007, have tried to get him over 1,000 the past two years. Despite those efforts, they haven't made the playoffs.

Executive 5: Leave the decision to the coach

"Mike Zimmer has a good feel for a team. A lot of people in the organization didn't want Adrian back because of the incident with his child that led to the suspension in 2014. Peterson had issues with the team and ownership. There was a tension there. Zimmer calmed things and made it work for the team and Adrian. I'd follow his lead.''

Zimmer can be tough on his players, but players?believe in him. He has a read for the team, and he should have a big part in this decision.

The verdict

Four of the front-office executives I talked to thought Minnesota should cut ties with Peterson,?but they all thought it was a more complicated decision for the Vikings, who have emotional ties to Peterson and might not want to let go of one of the greatest players in franchise history.

It might be more likely that the Vikings try to get Peterson to take a big pay cut, as Executive 1 suggested,?sign a one-year deal, and then go from there.

If Peterson hits the open market, however, he probably won't like what he finds. It's hard to figure Peterson getting?more than $4 million a year in free agency. Remember: Peterson will be 32 coming off an injury-plagued season in which he averaged 1.9 yards per carry.

If Peterson can accept those facts, maybe he can get a deal for between $6 million and $8 million from the Vikings. If not, he's gone.