Baseline Buzz: Big Four Forecast

Matt Wilansky: I fully agree, Missy, but Djokovic starts his campaign here without a single grass-court tuneup match. Yes, surfaces have homogenized in recent years, but they're still all very different as Djokovic noted in Saturday's presser. "So from the slowest to the fastest surface, it takes quite a few days and weeks to adjust to the movement," he said. "I think the movement is crucial basically because on clay you can slide, and here you can't afford too many big steps. You have to try to have as many of the adjustment steps and be balanced." It's too bad we can't wait about two rounds to make our picks, but that's how it goes. I would still say he is the slight favorite, but I think Nadal, who's won one match here the past two seasons, will be motivated. If he makes the requisite adjustments, like moving closer to the baseline, and gets on a roll, Nadal might just sweep the Euro Slams this season.

Garber: I am most curious about Rafa's state of mind. The last two years, winning the French Open took so much out of him that he had nothing left for Wimbledon. He acknowledged as much in his Saturday news conference. "Is really the most dangerous tournament of the year," Nadal said. "The feeling on court is a little bit strange for everybody." And then Rafa offered this reassuring thought: "I am feeling better this year than last couple years, seriously. I am able to move myself more free now. I'm not scared about my knee. That's the most important thing for me." Hmmm. He'd see Milos Raonic in the quarterfinals.

Isaacson: I'm more curious to see how Murray performs here. All the talk has been about his hiring Amelie Mauresmo as his coach after his stint with Ivan Lendl. On that note, a weird and somewhat disturbing reaction from 1977 Wimbledon champ Virginia Wade, who told the London Telegraph that Mauresmo, a two-time Grand Slam winner and respected coach, was "mentally fragile" and said she thought they were "fooling around" when they made the announcement. But Mauresmo's "a nice person," said Ginny, so we're all good, I guess. However Murray plays, too much attention will be put on his new coach's influence. The obvious question is how the rest of his career goes post-life-altering Wimbledon title last year. My cab driver said Brits will not be too hard on him if he never wins again, that no one can ever take that away from him and everyone here understands that. So there you have it.

Wilansky: Full disclosure: I am a fan of the Fed Man. And I think -- maybe hope is a better word -- he can win here for an eighth (and presumably) final time. I like what I heard from him in his presser Saturday. He's in a good place mentally and physically and sounds as if, in his mind anyway, he can win this thing. The consensus of our experts is that his window for Grand Slam singles titles is all but closed, but if it's going to happen one more time, it will happen here. He just needs a few things to happen -- a few losses, that is. If someone takes out Nadal before the semifinals, well, suddenly an 18th major doesn't seem so far-fetched.

Garber: A friend of mine, reading our story from Saturday, asked if Federer was considered arrogant. Yes, of course, I said, but when you can back it up with 17 Slams, it's not arrogance; it's merely the truth. Personally, I'd love to see him win one more, but I don't think it's realistic. Missy, where are you on this subject?

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