Best bets for Sunday's Round of 32 games
After an exciting opening round of play and a Saturday slate that featured a historic upset, Sunday brings eight more March Madness contests. Here's a look at the best bets for Sunday's round of 32 games.
If you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.
Note: All odds are via Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of March 17.
No. 9 Kansas State Wildcats (-10) vs. No. 16 UMBC Retrievers
7:45 p.m. ET in Charlotte
Not many betting trends to tap into involving 16-seeds in the second round of the NCAA Tournament, but University of Maryland-Baltimore County did the unthinkable on Friday and beat top-seed Virginia. The Retrievers were power rated right below fellow tournament participants Lipscomb and Cal State Fullerton, who lost their first-round games by a combined 44 points. By now, you've see all of the highlights. Virtually everything UMBC chucked up went in during the second half. Against one of the best defenses in the country, a team that finished fifth in the American East in offensive efficiency at barely over a point per possession hit 12-of-24 from three.
That's not going to happen against Kansas State. This handicap really comes down to whether or not you believe UMBC has anything left in the tank. Two days removed from what some are calling the biggest upset in college basketball history, a similar performance is asking a lot. I'll be on the chalk for something.
ATS pick: Kansas State -10
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers (-3.5) vs. No. 10 Butler Bulldogs
12:10 p.m. ET in Detroit
There's a lot going on with this matchup, as Purdue and Butler hook up for the second time this season. The Boilermakers won the first meeting, 82-67, in Indianapolis as -7 chalk.
The story line here in the loss of Purdue big man Isaac Haas, who broke his elbow in the win over Cal State Fullerton. Haas is unique in that he's a true center and the focus of the offense. Purdue has plenty of offensive assets, but in a half court set, the Boilermakers work hard to get him touches. Haas' backup, fellow 7-footer Matt Haarms, will obviously see more playing time, but his ceiling is around 20 minutes, and he's very limited on the offensive end.
It's logical to think that minus Haas, Purdue's defense will suffer, and it's pace will increase due to the time normally spent trying to get Haas the ball in the half court. Butler doesn't play at a breakneck pace, but they will look to score in transition. The total opened at 146 with early money on the under. I disagree with the move. Haas is worth a fair amount to the total, and his absence suggests the over will have value.
Pick: Over 143.5 total points
No. 4 Auburn Tigers (-1) vs. No. 5 Clemson Tigers
7:10 p.m. ET in San Diego
Auburn got all they could handle in an ugly 62-58 win over College of Charleston. The Cougars shot better percentages from two, three and the free throw line and were plus-4 on the glass, but coughed it up 23 times to Auburn's 12. Auburn has now been without shot blocker and rim protector Anfernee McLemore for six games, of which the team is 3-3 SU and 1-5 ATS. It's one of the more underrated late season injuries in all of college basketball.
Clemson lost its own key player in Donte Grantham (14.2 PPG) back in late January, but it's managed well without him (8-6 SU/ATS). I think Clemson guards Gabe DeVoe, Shelton Mitchell and Marcquise Reed are equipped to handle Auburn's defensive pressure. The trio shot a combined 25-of-42 for 59.5 percent and committed only five turnovers in Friday's 79-68 win over New Mexico State. Auburn's had a great season, but it appears to be on borrowed time. It wouldn't shock me to see Clemson close as the deserving favorite.
ATS pick: Clemson 1
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