Best bets on every Week 12 NFL game
— -- It's Week 12 of the NFL season, and we got an early start with a Thanksgiving tripleheader. Chalk's Vegas experts have you covered with comprehensive betting previews for all of Thursday's and Sunday's action, included together in one handy file.
Dave Tuley
Last week: 2-3-1 against the spread with best bets (marked with an *); 2-2 with over/under best bets; 4-4 ATS on picks on all other games.
Season to date: 33-28-3 (54.1 percent) on ATS best bets; 27-17 (61.4 percent) with O/U best bets; 42-50-1 on ATS leans; 8-6 on O/U leans.
Mike Clay
Last week: 5-6 on ATS best bets; 6-7 with O/U best bets.
Season: 57-43-3 (57 percent) on ATS best bets; 52-46 (53.1 percent) on O/U best bets.
Erin Rynning
Last week: 2-1 on O/U best bets, 1-1 on O/U leans.
Season: 9-11 (45 percent) on ATS best bets; 16-14 (53.3 percent) on O/U best bets; 5-3 on ATS leans, 3-2 on O/U leans.
Rufus Peabody
Last week: 1-1-1 on ATS best bets; 1-1 on O/U best bets, 0-1 on ATS leans, 2-0 on O/U leans.
Season: 12-17-1 (41.4 percent) on ATS best bets; 8-14 (36.4 percent) on O/U best bets; 9-5-2 (64.3 percent) on ATS leans, 3-3 on O/U leans.
Note: All odds courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook as of Wednesday morning.
Sunday
San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans
Spread: Opened Houston -1; now San Diego -1.5
Total: Opened 45.5; now 46
PickCenter public consensus pick: 56 percent San Diego
Public perception: The public is siding with the Chargers, which is an exciting team to watch with their No. 8 offense and playing so many close games.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps also jumped on San Diego, betting it from a short road underdog to a short road favorite. The action is more split now.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm of the opinion that the wrong team is now favored. The Texans certainly feel as if they were robbed in their 27-20 loss to the Raiders in Mexico City on Monday night and there's some concern about a letdown, but I expect them to come out with more of a chip on their shoulder. Houston's No. 5 defense mostly stood up to the Raiders and should also contain the Chargers' offense, while Brock Osweiler, Lamar Miller and the Houston offense should be able to grind out a win at home, where the Texans are 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS.
The pick: Texans 1.5*
Rufus Peabody: Houston got some bad breaks from the officiating in Mexico City on Monday, but its real issue was stopping Derek Carr. The Texans were able to bottle up Latavius Murray and the Oakland rushing attack, giving up only 1.8 yard per carry to Oakland running backs, but the second-year quarterback picked them apart. Carr wasn't sacked and threw for 9.5 yards per pass play, including a 75-yard touchdown pass to fullback Jamize Olawale. Houston's offense continued to sputter, averaging fewer than 5 yards per play for the sixth time this season, and the fourth straight game. Though the officials did cost them one this week, the Texans' offense has gone four straight games without a pass play of 25 or more yards. We rate San Diego as an average team and three points better than Houston on a neutral field. The Chargers should be 2-point favorites in Houston coming off their bye week.
Pick: None
Massey-Peabody Line: San Diego -2.0, Total: 44.4
Mike Clay
Prediction: San Diego 24, Houston 23
Tennessee Titans at Chicago Bears
Spread: Opened pick 'em; now Tennessee -4.5
Total: Opened 45.5; now 42
PickCenter public consensus pick: 87 percent Tennessee
Public perception: The public is all over the Titans, even after they let down bettors last week in their 24-17 loss at Indianapolis. This is against the Bears, who are among the league's worst teams at 2-8 SU and 3-7 ATS (and now without starting QB Jay Cutler and WR Alshon Jeffery).
Wiseguys' view: There was already some movement toward making Tennessee the favorite after this game opened pick 'em and the Cutler news added to it. The sharps have backed off more than the public since the adjustment.
Dave Tuley's take: The Titans would be tempting to fade as a road favorite (first time in that role this season and 1-2 ATS as favorites overall), but I would feel better if Brian Hoyer was starting instead of Matt Barkley. The over is also appealing with the dip to just 42 points, but Barkley looked lost in his sole relief role in Week 7 at Green Bay, so I'm not confident he'll contribute much to the over (though I guess potential pick-sixes are a contribution).
The pick: Lean to over 42 (lean to Titans -4.5)
Rufus Peabody: The Bears are forced to turn to Barkley again after another Cutler injury, though many Chicago fans are probably happy to see someone other than Cutler at quarterback. Still, Barkley is a substantial downgrade, with Massey-Peabody rating him as 4.3 points worse than Cutler. Chicago actually outplayed the New York Giants last week, with Massey-Peabody grading the Bears out as two points better than Big Blue. It looks as if the market's adjustment to Cutler's injury is about accurate, and I don't show much value at the current price of Chicago 5.5.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Tennessee -4.9, Total: 40.9
Erin Rynning: To say Chicago's offense is a mess feels like an understatement. The injury list is long -- from Cutler to Jeffery to the offensive line -- and the Bears will be down to third-string quarterback Barkley with the loss of Hoyer earlier this season. Chicago will try its best to shorten the game with the running attack. Unfortunately, with a limited passing game they won't be able to exploit the Titans' key weakness: their pass defense. Look for the Titans to gain an early lead and churn clock with their capable ground game in a low-scoring affair.
Play: Under 42 or higher
Mike Clay
Prediction: Tennessee 25, Chicago 16
The pick: Tennessee and the Under --- TEN -4.5, 42
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Spread: Opened Buffalo -6.5; now Buffalo -7.5
Total: Opened 45.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 73 percent Buffalo
Public perception: The public is siding with the Bills (5-5 SU and a very respectable 5-3-2 ATS) coming off their bye week, but this is just as much the public fading the Jaguars, who continue to scuffle along at 2-8 SU and 3-6-1 ATS.
Wiseguys' view: The opening line of Buffalo -6.5 at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook lasted less than 15 minutes on Sunday afternoon and sharps have joined with the public in pushing this through the key number of 7. The support is helped with reports that Bills RB LeSean McCoy is expected to play after hurting his thumb.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm still reeling from the Jaguars not covering as 6.5-point underdogs last week at Detroit. It was frustrating to watch, as Jacksonville was expected to improve so much this season (and the defense is an underrated No. 7 in yards allowed per game), but the team continues to make key mistakes at crucial times. It's hard to think of backing the Jaguars again, but here we are getting more than a touchdown and I can't resist the feeling that they're still more likely to cover with the inflated line. I just can't trust them enough to make it a best bet, though. The pick: Lean to Jaguars 7.5
Rufus Peabody: Buffalo was finally able to win a close game, stopping Andy Dalton and the Bengals' offense in the final minute to get the close win. The game shouldn't have been that close, though; based on the metrics most predictive of future performance, Buffalo outplayed Cincinnati by 11 points, with its performance grading out as third best of the weekend. The Bills shined on defense, holding Cincinnati to only 4.3 yards per play. Jacksonville continued to struggle holding onto the ball, and its season-long turnover margin is minus-15, worst in the NFL. I always harp on how turnovers are less predictive than efficiency metrics, but Jacksonville has been bad in both categories this season. I like Buffalo here, but I'm not as bearish on Jacksonville as I am bullish on Buffalo.
Pick: Buffalo -7
Massey-Peabody Line: Buffalo -10.5, Total: 45.2
Mike Clay
Prediction: Buffalo 29, Jacksonville 18
The pick: Buffalo and the Over --- BUF -7.5, 45
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens
Spread: Opened Baltimore -3; now Baltimore -4
Total: Opened 41; now 40.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 79 percent Baltimore
Public perception: The public is all over the Ravens as it appears they're willing to forgive a team for losing to the dominant Cowboys. The Bengals are also without RB Giovani Bernard and WR A.J. Green.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps grabbed the Baltimore -3 at the Westgate and other books that opened that low, but it's mostly the public continuing to push the line higher. We've seen some sharp buyback on Cincinnati 4.5, so I wouldn't expect it to steam higher.
Dave Tuley's take: The Bengals are having a disappointing season at 3-6-1 SU and 2-7-1 ATS, but a lot of that is because of a tough schedule and the fact that they've lost more than their fair share of close games. While the losses of Bernard and Green don't help, unlike other struggling teams that have injury concerns, the Bengals still have a core of veteran players that can be competitive. The NFL Vegas Rankings still have the Bengals as 1 point better than the Ravens and see value as a 4-point road underdog.
The pick: Bengals 4*.
Rufus Peabody: Was Baltimore's offensive "outburst" (7.1 yards per play, 56 percent play success rate, fourth-best graded offensive performance of Week 11) against Dallas an anomaly? Baltimore had barely sniffed 6 yards per play before last week, and the Ravens did change offensive coordinators a few weeks before. While we grade their offense a full point better, they still rate 26th in the NFL. Cincinnati's offense has really struggled the past few weeks, and the losses of Bernard and Green certainly won't help, but Cincinnati is still a (slightly) above-average team, and I'm really surprised this line is as high as it is. Cincinnati is a play at 3.5 or better and a lean at 3.
Pick: Cincinnati 4.5, Over 40.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Baltimore -0.9, Total: 43.7
Mike Clay
Prediction: Baltimore 20, Cincinnati 17
The pick: Cincinnati and the Under --- CIN 4, 40.5
Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons
Spread: Opened Atlanta -4; now Atlanta -4
Total: Opened 50.5; now 50.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 78 percent Atlanta
Public perception: The Falcons continue to be a public team, as their offense is No. 3 in yards per game and averaging 32 points per game while some of the luster has come off the Cardinals as they struggle to find their way during a 4-5-1 SU and 3-7 ATS season.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly split on this game as oddsmakers made the right move of opening this line well above a field goal. The line has gone up to 5 at a few books, but most are sitting in the 4 to 4.5 range.
Dave Tuley's take: I'm still feeling good with my Atlanta division/Super Bowl futures, though the Falcons' lead in the NFC South has been reduced to one game over Tampa Bay and two over Carolina and New Orleans. I'm not going to fade them at home with an inconsistent Arizona team, but I am going to go against the "obvious" play on the over. The Falcons are 8-2 with the over, including 4-0 at home, but the Cardinals are more of an under team at 7-3 and I expect their No. 1-rated defense to contain the Falcons' offense at least a little. In addition, the Atlanta defense should come back fresh from the bye and help keep this under the inflated total.
The pick: Under 50.5* (lean to Atlanta -4).
Rufus Peabody: Arizona really is in a precarious position, as the Cardinals' loss to Minnesota, in which they gave up a touchdown on defense and special teams, drops them to 4-5-1. Now they have to travel east to face a pretty good Falcons team that is coming off a bye. Those are a lot of factors working against them here. I still believe in the Cardinals -- they are Massey-Peabody's seventh-ranked team -- but they need to figure out their pass protection; Carson Palmer has been sacked 18 times in Arizona's past four games. I make the line Atlanta -3.2, so there's no value at the current line of 4.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: Atlanta -3.2, Total: 49.9
Erin Rynning: The Cardinals have simply been a snakebit football team as their under-.500 record doesn't tell the whole story. Arizona has now outgained eight of its past nine opponents with the exception of giving the Panthers a 9-yard edge on Oct. 30. One would expect a youthful team to make mistakes, but the Cardinals are as experienced as any in the NFL. Look for this team to correct these miscues this week, while catching over a field goal.
Pick: Arizona
Mike Clay
Prediction: Atlanta 26, Arizona 25
The pick: Arizona 4
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins
Spread: Opened Miami -8.5; now Miami -7.5
Total: Opened 45.5; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 58 percent Miami
Public perception: The public is mostly split on this game as I've seen both teams getting the nod at different bet-tracking sites. The line has wavered between 7.5 and 8.5.
Wiseguys' view: Sharps are mostly on the 49ers as they grabbed the 8.5s that were available and still showed support at 8, but it's leveled off now.
Dave Tuley's take: My 4ViewsFromVegas group entry in the SuperContest had the Dolphins -1.5 at the Rams last week and I still don't know how we escaped with a win there. The offense did nothing for 55 minutes, but even though the 49ers' last-ranked defense isn't as good as the Rams, I still wouldn't trust the Dolphins to cover this big of a spread (and they were 0-2-1 ATS as faves before last week). Colin Kaepernick also seems to be getting more comfortable in Chip Kelly's offense. I'm falling short of calling for the outright upset with the 49ers having lost nine straight, but I really like them to stay within a touchdown of a still-mediocre Miami team.
The pick: 49ers 7.5*.
Rufus Peabody: Despite needing two late fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat Los Angeles, Miami still graded out well (the Dolphins were fundamentally 14 points better than the Rams) because of their stifling defense. They held Jared Goff and the Rams' offense to a 29 percent play success rate and gave up a season-low 3.9 yards per play.
A week after containing David Johnson, San Francisco was once again atrocious against the run, giving 6.1 yards per carry to Patriots running backs, including three rushes of 15 or more yards. The Dolphins should lean heavily on Jay Ajayi, but I still see this game as a little closer than the market does.
Pick: Lean San Francisco 7.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Miami -6.5, Total: 44.1
Mike Clay
Prediction: Miami 27, San Francisco 21
The pick: San Francisco and the Over --- SF 7.5, 45.5
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints
Spread: Opened New Orleans -6.5; now New Orleans -7 (-120)
Total: Opened 45.5; now 45.5
PickCenter public consensus pick: 75 percent New Orleans
Public perception: The public is on the Saints with their high-powered offense and they've been good to bettors at 7-3 ATS. Besides, bettors aren't ready to back the Rams with Jared Goff.
Wiseguys' view: Several books, including the Westgate, opened this lower than a touchdown and early sharps grabbed those. It's more split at 7, but there are plenty of indications this is headed to 7.5. Count the Saints among the teams that will be popular teaser plays for sharps and squares alike.
Dave Tuley's take: I would be tempted to take the Rams if the line does get to 7.5 because of their No. 6 defense being able to bring pressure and cause problems for Drew Brees and the offense. However, the L.A. offense is No. 31 in yards per game and Goff didn't add any spark last week, so the obvious play for me is the under. It's lower than we usually see for New Orleans home games, but I still don't think it was adjusted low enough.
The pick: Under 45.5* (lean to New Orleans -7).
Rufus Peabody: Despite last week's loss at Carolina, New Orleans' performance graded out as the second-best of the week. Los Angeles, with the rookie Goff starting at QB, ranked second-to-last. Why did New Orleans grade out so well? Surprisingly, it was due to the Saints' defense, which allowed only 3.6 yards per play to Carolina, and held Panthers running backs to 1.4 yards per rush. Despite holding Carolina to a 34 percent play success rate overall, Carolina was able to convert 7-of-17 third downs. New Orleans lost because it turned the ball over twice (and didn't force a turnover) and had a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown; this coming a week after a blocked extra point return cost the Saints the game. If they can finally figure out a way to block for field goal attempts, they should have a pretty easy time this week.
Pick: New Orleans -7
Massey-Peabody Line: New Orleans -10.0, Total: 46.1
Mike Clay
Prediction: New Orleans 25, Los Angeles 18
The pick: Under 45.5
New York Giants at Cleveland Browns
Spread: Opened New York -6.5; now New York -7 (EVEN)
Total: Opened 45; now 44
PickCenter public consensus pick: 84 percent New York
Public perception: The public is certainly not looking to bet the Browns (0-11 SU and also a league-worst 2-9 ATS), but the Giants are gaining public support for their 7-3 start to the season, though they did drop to 4-4-2 ATS with their non-covering 22-16 win over the Bears last week.
Wiseguys' view: The sharps knew this line would only go up, so they grabbed New York -6.5 when the openers came out and it's more split now at 7.
Dave Tuley's take: Even I can't trust the Browns as home underdogs at this point. Cleveland started the season as an over team (decent offense, terrible defense), but the Browns have gone under the past three games as the offense has been ineffective whether it's Cody Kessler or Josh McCown under center. The Giants are also 7-3 with the under, including their past two games, so I expect them to get the early lead and coast to victory in a relatively low-scoring game.
The pick: Under 44* (lean to Giants -7).
Rufus Peabody: After an injury to Kessler, Cleveland has to turn to McCown (again). That isn't necessarily a bad thing for the Browns, as he gives them just as good a chance to win now (though Cleveland would much rather see what it has with Kessler). After averaging 5.6 yards per play and a respectable 42 percent play success rate the first nine games, the Browns have managed just 3.2 yards per play and a 31 percent play success rate the past two games. The problems have been mostly in the passing game, with a pass average of only 3.4 yards per pass play the last two weeks. Both teams have -7 turnover differentials on the year.
Pick: Pass
Massey-Peabody Line: New York Giants -8.0, Total: 43.5
Mike Clay
Prediction: New York Giants 24, Cleveland 20
The pick: Cleveland --- CLV 7
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Spread: Opened Seattle -6; now Seattle -6
Total: Opened 45; now 45
PickCenter public consensus pick: 89 percent Seattle
Public perception: The Seahawks are back to being a very public team and appear headed to the No. 2 seed in the NFC after improving to 7-2-1 SU and covering their past two for backers and 3-1-1 ATS in their past five games.
Wiseguys' view: Early sharps grabbed Tampa Bay 6 at the Westgate and other books that opened at that line and the line was mostly Seattle -5.5 early in the week, but now it's back up to 6 and sharps are more split.
Dave Tuley's take: The Seahawks are certainly rounding into form on both sides of the ball, but this could be a tough spot for them on the road. Seattle isn't as bad as it used to be away from home (and really overcame that stigma with its upset in New England), but the Seahawks have lost at both Los Angeles and New Orleans, and had their tie at Arizona. The Buccaneers don't always protect their home turf and started 0-4 SU and ATS at home this season, but they did cover as home faves two weeks ago against the Bears and then really stepped up in their 19-17 upset in Kansas City as 7-point road underdogs. That really showed me that Jameis Winston can stand up to a playoff-quality defense.
The pick: Buccaneers 6*.
Rufus Peabody: I'm not sure how Tampa Bay is a 5-5 team to be honest, as the Bucs' opponents have outgained them -- 6.1-5.3 yards per play -- and their play success rate of 47 percent trails their opponents' rate of 50 percent. But the Bucs have been good on both sides of the ball on third down, converting 45 percent of third-down attempts on offense and allowing opponents only 36 percent. Tampa was beaten across the board statistically by Kansas City in Week 11, except on third downs, where the Bucs converted a ridiculous 11 times in 16 chances. I expect their third-down performance, relative to average, to more closely resemble their overall performance. Seattle is a pick at -5.5 and a lean at -6.
Pick: Seattle -5.5
Massey-Peabody Line: Seattle -8.1, Total: 45.5
Mike Clay
Prediction: Seattle 26, Tampa Bay 20
The pick: Over 45
Play: Jets
Mike Clay
Prediction: New England 26, New York Jets 18
The pick: New England and the Under --- NE -8, 47.5
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