How to bet Blue Jays-Royals ALCS

ByMLB VEGAS EXPERTS
October 16, 2015, 1:08 PM

— -- Somewhere in Toronto, perhaps at about the time Jose Bautista's bat came back to earth, a 45-year-old fan of the Blue Jays muttered to his teenage sons, "I hope the Royals win tonight because I've been waiting for this payback for 30 years."

That's right, little remembered by all but die-hard baseball fans of Generation X is the fact that the Royals and the Blue Jays once played a classic seven-game American League Championship Series in 1985 that resulted not only in a pennant for Kansas City, but ended nearly two weeks later with the Royals' only World Series win. In that showdown against the Blue Jays, the Royals were down three games to one before rallying to take the series with three straight wins. Kansas City may not get to the postseason very often, but it sure seems like it hasn't changed its modus operandi for success.

Both teams can claim the momentum mantle as the Royals trailed in all three games they won against the Astros, including October's most improbable comeback in Game 4. Toronto, on the other hand, had to win three straight games against Texas, and its Game 5, seventh-inning comeback against the Rangers will be talked about in Canada for years to come.

It's hard to argue that anyone has more momentum right now than Joe Peta, who is 7-0 (+8.10 units) this postseason, including a clean sweep of all four LDS matchups. Andrew Lange is on quite a roll as well, posting a 5-1 record (+4.0 units) since the playoffs began.

Here are their best bets for the ALCS:

Toronto Blue Jays (-145) vs. Kansas City Royals (+125)

Joe Peta: When looking to bet the series, there are obviously a lot of factors to weigh. I'm just going to note a trio of factors that I don't think are properly accounted for in the series price.

For all of the acclaim that deservedly comes Toronto's way for its offensive prowess, on the other side of the ledger the Blue Jays do have a notable weakness -- their pitchers, especially their starters, don't strike out batters. They say styles make fights, but this is the wrong style to bring to a fight against the Royals because they strike out far less than any other team. The Blue Jays' defense was very, very good after the trade deadline pickups of Ben Revere and Troy Tulowitzki, but no one puts more balls in play than do the Royals. As a result, xFIP, SIERA or any other predictive ERA metric may materially understate expected runs allowed for each pitcher.

While not a strength, the Royals do bring an attribute to the series that dampens the Blue Jays' formidable power: Kansas City simply does not give up home runs at home. No American League team surrendered fewer home runs at home than the Royals, and of course, they have the home-field advantage for this series.

Finally, as well-documented on these pages during the ALDS, the Blue Jays bludgeon left-handed pitching. However, if the Royals go with Kris Medlen or Chris Young instead of Danny Duffy as their Game 4 starter, the only time the Blue Jays will face any southpaws will be in extremely low-leverage situations, most likely in an already-decided game. I am very happy to get the Royals as an underdog in this series and, frankly, in any game they're listed as a 'dog (unless Duffy is on the mound.)

Let's go with the Royals to take a second straight AL pennant.

Series pick: Royals

ESPN Chalk pick: Royals (+125)

Andrew Lange: In looking at the probable pitching matchups for the first four games of the series, Toronto is likely to be favored in all four. I prefer Estrada over Volquez in Game 1, as Estrada's fly-ball ways are ideal for pitcher-friendly Kauffman Stadium and his plus changeup can neutralize Kansas City's lefties.

I'm not sure what to make of the Price situation. Price got hit hard in Game 1 of the AL Division Series, as well as in relief in Game 4. The fact that he's not starting Game 1 is perhaps a sign that something is going on from a confidence standpoint. His matchup against Yordano Ventura in Game 2 is one I'll almost assuredly be sitting out. I've previously voiced my distaste for Johnny Cueto and his late-season slide, but he did look sharp in the Game 5 win over Houston. However, pitted against Marcus Stroman in the Rogers Centre won't be nearly as easy as pitching in Kauffman against the free-swinging Astros. R.A. Dickey versus Medlen, who hasn't thrown since Oct. 1, is another matchup where Toronto likely will be favored.

Kansas City will have some advantages, however, and ways of potentially neutralizing Toronto's offense. I'm a big believer in splits and matchups and can't help but notice that the Royals may not throw a lefty -- starter or reliever -- the entire series. Duffy, who tossed two-thirds of an inning, was the only Royals left-hander to throw in the ALDS. Texas had no choice but to toss lefties Derek Holland, Martin Perez and Cole Hamels (twice), and the Jays outscored the Rangers 23-14 in those games, winning three of them. Toronto's offense is obviously loaded with right-handed power, and while they didn't average an MLB-best 5.5 runs per game hitting left-handed pitching exclusively, Kansas City's cause benefits from being so right-hand dominant.

Bettors looking to support the Blue Jays also should be concerned about the late innings. Kansas City has some very trustworthy right-handed arms in Wade Davis, Ryan Madson and Kelvin Herrera, as well as Young and Luke Hochevar for long relief. Perhaps one of the most important developments is the injury to Toronto reliever Brett Cecil. Cecil was filthy against left-handed batters this season (.195 BAA, .286 SLG), of which the Royals have a bunch. That leaves Aaron Loup (4.46 ERA) as the team's primary lefty-vs.-lefty option.

My pick for the series is Toronto, but there is plenty to like about Kansas City. With the Royals owning home-field advantage -- which I believe in this series could have an impact -- the -145 price tag on the Blue Jays just isn't feasible. Just as in their series against Texas, I'll be looking to get a more-attractive adjusted price down the road, but barring that, I'll play it game-by-game.

Series pick: Blue Jays

ESPN Chalk pick: Pass