How to bet every Sweet 16 game

— -- We hope everyone enjoyed last week's action in the NCAA tournament -- the best reality show on TV.

Most of our brackets are busted, but hopefully you made some money if you were betting on the games. Favorites and underdogs split 24-24 ATS in the first and second rounds, with 12 of those 'dogs winning outright. Overs were 25-22-1 (26-22 if counting North Carolina-Florida Gulf Coast as an over).

There were a lot of games that landed close to the spreads or totals, and it was more important than ever to shop for the best numbers. As pointed out in Sunday's best bets piece, yours truly was 7-4 with my best bets in the first round from last week's NCAA tournament betting guide, but my posted play of Villanova/UNC Asheville under 141.5 was widely available at 142.5, so most followers could have gone 8-3.

I went 2-1 on Sunday with a loss on Iowa-Villanova under 145.5, but won with VCU +7 vs. Oklahoma and Northern Iowa +6.5 vs. Texas A&M. So my official posted record is 10-6-1 (62.5 percent) but turns into 13-4 (76.4 percent) with a little bit of market timing and line shopping.

Without further ado, Andrew Lange and yours truly break down all of Thursday's and Friday's Sweet 16 games. Incorporate what we say into your handicapping and definitely shop around for the best numbers you can get.

And if you're looking for more analysis, be sure to check out PickCenter, which has projections on every NCAA tournament game, and the Chalk home page.

ATS picks for every game

Note: Picks marked with an asterisk (*) are best bets. All times are ET.

Thursday

No. 2 Villanova Wildcats (-4) vs. No. 3 Miami Hurricanes

7:10 p.m.

Current total: 140.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent pick Miami (FL) to cover
BPI: Villanova has 72.6 percent chance of winning

Tuley: Villanova was No. 1 in scoring defense during the regular season and I mentioned above that I took the under in the Wildcats' first-round game. However, after barely cashing that bet, we watched Villanova run all over Iowa and shoot 59 percent from the field in its 87-68 victory on Saturday. Because of the Wildcats' stingy reputation, the oddsmakers don't have the over/under set too high, so I think there's value as they're looking more like an over team right now.

Miami went over in its opener, but then stayed under 129 in its 65-57 win over Wichita State; however, a big reason that number stayed low was that the Hurricanes jumped out to a 27-6 lead, still led by 13 at halftime and coasted to the win. I've stated before how much I like Miami point guard Angel Rodriguez, and I feel he and the Canes' guard-heavy lineup can run with the Wildcats (and if they come anywhere near their 12-of-20 3-point shooting in the first half against Wichita State, this could really be a shootout).

While I believe Miami will be able to keep up with Villanova, I still think the point spread is a little short, so that's why I believe the over is the stronger play.

Pick: over 140.5 (lean on Villanova)

No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 2 Oklahoma Sooners (-2.5)

7:35 p.m.

Current total: 146.5
PickCenter consensus pick:  67 percent pick Oklahoma to cover
BPI: Oklahoma has 62.1 percent chance of winning

Lange: It's hard to make a deep March run without a few bounces going your way. Texas A&M pulled off a well-publicized 1-in-3,000-chance comeback against Northern Iowa on Sunday, but I'm not putting much in that outcome with regard to this handicap.

I think it helps that rather than a short turnaround, the Aggies have time to emotionally and physically recover from Sunday's epic win -- and also to better prepare a game plan for keeping Buddy Hield in check. It's a near-impossible task, but there's more to this matchup than Hield's offensive production. In fact, the Sooners show far better results with a more balanced output. Hield scored 30 or more points in nine games against Big 12 foes this season, but in those nine games, Oklahoma went 4-5 straight up and a dismal 1-8 against the spread. He netted 36 on Sunday against VCU, and once again, the Sooners failed to cash as 6-point favorites.

The current point spread and total are in pretty good spots. Early money has come in on the Sooners (-1.5 to -2.5) and the over (145 to 146). I have Oklahoma the higher power-rated team, but the difference comes out to -1.5 on a neutral floor. At +3 I'd be somewhat interested in the underdog, but will likely wait until halftime to see if a better opportunity presents itself.

Lean: Texas A&M +3 or higher

No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks (-6.5) vs. No. 5 Maryland Terrapins

9:40 p.m. ET

Current total: 145
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Maryland to cover
BPI: Kansas has 75.8 percent chance of winning

Tuley: Kansas is the No. 1 overall seed and lived up to that billing with its two spread-covering wins last weekend. But are the Jayhawks invincible? I don't think they are, and in fact, I believe they have a tough matchup with Maryland.

The Terrapins have underachieved after being among the preseason favorites to win the title, and they survived a scare against 13-seed Hawaii on Sunday; however, if they come to play, they match up very well with the Jayhawks. All five of Maryland's starters ( Melo Trimble, Jake Layman, Robert Carter, Rasheed Sulaimon and Diamond Stone) average in double figures. Once Maryland got rolling against Hawaii, it racked up 29 points in transition, and Trimble should help push the pace.

The Terrapins hit only 1 of 18 3s in that game, so if they can rectify that, they'll be even more potent. On the defensive end, Maryland has the bigs to challenge the Kansas frontcourt around the net. This one should come down to the final buzzer.

Pick: Maryland +6.5*

No. 4 Duke Blue Devils vs. No. 1 Oregon Ducks (-2.5)

10:07 p.m.

Current total: 156.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 59 percent pick Oregon to cover
BPI: Duke has 52 percent chance of winning

Lange: It hasn't been a good showing for the Pac-12 this postseason with a combined record of 3-6 SU/ATS. Two of those wins came from Oregon, which trailed St. Joseph's by seven with five minutes to go. Meanwhile, the ACC is well represented with six teams remaining in the field.

But conference strength isn't enough to sway me in this matchup. Duke jumped out to a big lead over Yale (48-25 at halftime) but tightened up in the second half and held on for a 71-64 win. A real concern is Duke's ATS shortcomings, with a lone cover by a single point in its last seven games.

Personnel-wise, the Blue Devils don't have much (if any) depth and have routinely been exposed on the defensive end by more athletic teams. There's also the issue of the offense bogging down in crunch time. They score only 23 points in the second half against Yale and couldn't buy a bucket late in their overtime loss to Notre Dame in the ACC tournament.

I give edges to Oregon on both offense and defense, but would be wary of laying -3 or higher. I'd also lean to the under here.

Lean: Oregon and under

Friday

No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers (-5.5) vs. No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones

7:10 p.m. 

Current total: 142
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Iowa State to cover
BPI: Virginia has 67.3 percent chance of winning

Tuley: In the NCAA Vegas Ranks over at Chalk, Virginia is rated just 3.5 points higher than Iowa State, so with the Cyclones catching 5.5, there's a little bit of value on the underdog. Now, in full disclosure, I should point out that I have Iowa State rated higher than other handicappers, so that's the main reason the NCAA Vegas Ranks show a preference for the Cyclones. I also have a bias because I have multiple future-book tickets on Iowa State to cut down the nets.

But all that being said, I really do believe Iowa State is a live underdog on Friday and worth a play (note: if I wasn't so confident, I would be tempted to hedge my future bets, but I'm not doing that). The Cyclones have looked sharp so far in the tournament and I was also encouraged by what Butler was able to do against Virginia's highly-regarded defense. Iowa State's Georges Niang (who passed on entering the NBA draft last spring just for this reason) can score on anyone, and his supporting cast can pick up the slack if his shots aren't falling.

Pick: Iowa State +5.5*

No. 7 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (-1)

7:25 p.m.

Current total: 131.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 56 percent pick Wisconsin to cover
BPI: Notre Dame has 56.1 percent chance of winning

Lange: These are two squads that are fortunate to still be dancing, as Wisconsin hit two late 3s to get past Xavier and Notre Dame got a last second tip-in against Stephen F. Austin.

Friday's matchup is correctly priced as close to a pick-em with both teams very similar in style. Notre Dame boasted the top offensive efficiency in the ACC (1.14 points per possession) but counters with the worst defensive efficiency rating (1.03 PPP allowed) of any team remaining in the tournament. Wisconsin doesn't have nearly as much firepower, having failed to top a point per possession in both tournament wins. The Badgers, however, make up for it with the ability to get stops.

In the last 10 minutes of wins over Pittsburgh and Xavier, the Badgers allowed a combined 23 points. For bettors wishing to get involved, supporting the better defensive team in a short-lined game isn't a bad route to go.

In the end, I'm really not sold on either team and will likely sit this one out unless we see significant movement in the markets leading up to game day.

Pick: Pass

No. 10 Syracuse Orange vs. No. 11 Gonzaga Bulldogs (-4.5)

9:10 p.m. 

Current total: 134.5
PickCenter consensus pick: 51 percent pick Gonzaga to cover
BPI: Gonzaga has 60.8 percent chance of winning

Tuley: I'm high on both teams, but this is another case where I believe the point spread is a little overinflated and makes it worthy of a play. The NCAA Vegas Rankings agree that Gonzaga should be the favorite, but by just 2.5 points. Syracuse has made the most of its inclusion in the field -- which many people criticized as the Orange were given the nod over several quality bubble teams -- and coach Jim Boeheim has really played up that underdog role, though it's ironic that Syracuse has gone off as favorites in both of their wins. Michael Gbinije is the offensive leader on a team that spreads the floor and lights it up from 3-point range.

Gonzaga has also been impressive after barely making the field by winning the West Coast Conference title over Saint Mary's and is led by forwards Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis. However, Syracuse has frontline players to counter them, including sixth man Tyler Lydon, and defends the perimeter well with Boeheim's famed 2-3 zone.

Pick: Syracuse +4.5*

No. 5 Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels (-5.5)

9:55 p.m.

Current total: 160
PickCenter consensus pick: 53 percent pick Indiana to cover
BPI: UNC has 63.3 percent chance of winning

Lange: Heading into its game against Kentucky, Indiana had said that it was looking forward to an uptempo, high-scoring game. After a few quick shots -- a lot of which missed -- both teams settled into what was instead a half court, defensive battle. As said in that game's analysis, the Hoosiers are where they are because of an underrated defensive unit. Perhaps that unit deserves to be "upgraded" after holding the red-hot Wildcats to less than a point per possession.

North Carolina has also tightened the screws on the defensive end of late. Over their last seven games, including four against teams still remaining in the tournament, the Tar Heels allowed over a point per possession just once.

Of the remaining 16 teams, nine reside in the Big Ten and ACC, which speaks to the strength of both conferences. The perception is both teams are offensive juggernauts that produce NBA-type scores, but both Indiana and North Carolina finished a very respectable third in defensive efficiency in conference play. And over its last 20 games, North Carolina has played in only one contest that topped 160 points. Indiana is at a slightly higher ratio with two of its last 21 (in regulation) surpassing 160. I lean towards the under here.

Pick: Under 160*