Betting on a Kentucky title
— -- LAS VEGAS -- The No. 1 storyline after the NCAA field was announced Sunday was Kentucky's path to completing an undefeated season and cutting down the nets in Indianapolis on April 6.
Kentucky is undefeated and trying to become the first major college team to complete a perfect season since Bob Knight's 1975-76 Indiana team. A lot of media outlets even led with the odds from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook that have the Wildcats as the even-money favorite to win the title.
Last April, the then-LVH Hotel & Casino (which was bought by Westgate over the summer), opened Kentucky at 12-1. By July, the Wildcats were 9-2 to win the title. That's when the William Hill books opened a prop on whether they would go undefeated at 50-1 (you had to lay $80 to win $1 to bet against them going undefeated). Now it's seen as 50-50.
I think it's even more interesting that Kentucky was minus-140 (odds of 5-7) to win the title at the Westgate as recently as the week of Feb. 9. The Wildcats were then adjusted to minus-125 (odds of 4-5), and have been there the past month, but now are actually available at higher odds. But our purpose here is to not just have a theoretical or esoteric discussion of whether Kentucky will win its last six games and make history. Let's dig deeper and take a closer look at the Wildcats' potential path to completing the feat and look at where the potential landmines might be in their way (and, specifically, when it might be a good spot to bet against them).
I asked Jay Kornegay and his staff at the Westgate to give estimated point spreads for Kentucky's most likely potential opponents. Obviously, these lines are subject to change depending on how Kentucky or these teams look in the games between now and when the matchups take place. Additionally, injuries, as well as a variety of other factors can adjust the line as well.
National title
Kentucky vs. South No. 1 Duke/East No. 1 Villanova
Westgate projected lines: Kentucky -6 vs. Duke, Kentucky -8 vs. Villanova
Tuley's Take: The hype would be off the charts if an undefeated Kentucky team were to take on Duke and Coach K in the title game. The Blue Devils famously upset the last undefeated team that got close to the championship, pulling off the shocker against UNLV in the Final Four in 1991. These proposed lines look short to me. Yes, theoretically, the lines should continue to shrink as UK faces better and better teams; but I would think that the bandwagon would continue to gain momentum if the Wildcats stay unbeaten. I doubt I'll take Duke plus-6, but the closer it gets to double digits, the more inclined I would be to take the Blue Devils. Villanova (or East No. 2 seed Virginia or South No. 2 seed Gonzaga) would have to show me more to get me to take the points in the title game unless the line gets inflated.
ATS pick: Probably pass on title game and watch the coronation, unless the lines come up higher than projected here.
