BPI has Wichita State in title game (and says beware UNC again)

— -- The 2017-18 college basketball season begins Friday, our preseason Basketball Power Index (BPI) rankings and projections debuted last week (and can be explored at espn.com/bpi), and now it's time to further dissect the numbers and make some bold predictions.

It's important to remember that the BPI and all of its derivative metrics offer probability of outcomes, never predicting things with 100 percent certainty. As fans, we're seldom rational, so let's ignore the uncertainties for now and dive in:

Duke will not be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament

At first glance, who would pick against top-ranked, mega-talented Duke ending up on the 1-line on Selection Sunday? The Basketball Power Index, that's who.

To grade teams before the season, one factor BPI uses is what we call adjusted minutes returning, which accounts for injuries and transfers, taking the most optimistic view of minutes returning for each Division I team. The only teams returning less than Duke by this metric are Kentucky and Mississippi Valley State. Thus, of the 10,000 season simulations run by BPI, only 7 percent of them included Duke as a No. 1 seed.

While the 2018 recruiting class is indeed stellar, you'll remember that terrific young talent was a large reason why the Blue Devils were No. 1 in Preseason BPI in 2016. Mike Krzyzewski & Co. ended up a 2-seed after a very up-and-down season, and this season's young Duke team could encounter more of the same.

Wichita State will reach the national championship game ... where North Carolina could await

Last season, Gonzaga made its transition from the darling Cinderella of yesteryear to an NCAA runner-up. Though Wichita State has a Final Four on its r?sum? (losing to eventual champion Louisville in the 2013 semifinals), look for the Shockers to follow a similar script to the Zags. BPI gives the Shockers a 17 percent chance to get to the title game, the highest of any team.

Who might the Shockers face in the national championship?

BPI's projections give the best chances to Villanova (15.3 percent), Kansas (15.1 percent), Purdue (8.7 percent), Cincinnati (8 percent) and North Carolina (7.8 percent), and there's plenty of reason to fear the Tar Heels on that list.

UNC? March Madness.

For more from ESPN Analytics, visit the ESPN Analytics Index?and the Basketball Power Index.?