CFP Rankings: The case for No. 5
— -- The beauty of the College Football Playoff is we don't have to wait until January to enjoy a few elimination games.
The first of the committee's rankings arrived last week, and sure enough, four days later, we had our first taste at what a playoff game might feel like. Auburn and Ole Miss entered Saturday ranked in the top four, but one was guaranteed to finish the day with a second loss and a seriously diminished shot of reaching the playoff.
Auburn won that game -- another in a string of dramatic, fourth-quarter victories for the Tigers -- and accordingly, Ole Miss tumbled all the way to No. 11 in the latest rankings.
Remember when the reason there couldn't be a playoff was because it would diminish the significance of the regular season? It sure hasn't seemed that way so far.
In fact, we'll have what amounts to three more in-season playoff (or play-in, if you prefer) games this Saturday, as No. 14 Ohio State travels to No. 8 Michigan State, No. 9 Arizona State hosts No. 10 Notre Dame and No. 7 Kansas State takes on No. 6 TCU. All are 7-1, and half will be doomed to suffer that all-important loss No. 2.
The winners survive and advance. The losers are likely done as legitimate playoff contenders.
Down the road, we'll see Alabama and Mississippi State, Auburn and Alabama, and Ole Miss and Mississippi State, too. Even in the crowded SEC West, something's got to give.
At the end of it all, we'll have enjoyed a raucous regular-season filled with de facto win-or-go-home games to set up a postseason unlike any other.
But as Auburn relishes another week after narrowly avoiding catastrophe, as Alabama resides at No. 5 despite being arguably the most impressive one-loss team , and as the Big 12 and Big Ten remain on the outside looking in, it's probably worth asking: Should all these in-season showdowns really be elimination games?
Let's make the case for Alabama.
Right now, the Crimson Tide's lone loss was a six-point defeat at Ole Miss. The Tide top our Football Power Index, have the No. 4 strength of record, are No. 2 in our game-control metric (how much a team commands a game from start to finish). And, of course, Alabama has a pedigree of success and a roster filled with blue-chip recruits. But Alabama's remaining schedule is a gauntlet that includes a road trip to No. 16 LSU this weekend and home dates with No. 1 Mississippi State and No. 3 Auburn.
Compare that with what's left for Notre Dame, Michigan State or even TCU. The Horned Frogs get plenty of credit for their late win over West Virginia last week, but Alabama already upended the Mountaineers in more convincing fashion to open the season. A win this week over Kansas State would be pretty impressive for TCU, too, but Auburn has already toppled the Wildcats on their home turf, and Alabama will get its shot to prove it's a better matchup for the Tigers.
So what happens if Alabama beats LSU and Auburn but loses to Mississippi State? The Crimson Tide would be 10-2 and wouldn't have won the SEC West, but their losses would be to top-tier programs, and their wins -- West Virginia, LSU, Auburn -- would be as good as those of any program in the nation. Should a one-loss Big 12 team that didn't play a championship game get in over a two-loss Alabama? Or, perhaps more interestingly, what if it comes down to a one-loss Kansas State against a two-loss Auburn? And how will a one-loss team from the Big Ten fit in, compared to two-loss programs with far more arduous schedules?
It's a lot of "what ifs," and if the season has taught us anything so far, it's that these heavy questions have a way of answering themselves on the field. But in a year when there appears to be no great team but a host of very good ones, it will be interesting to see if the committee's approach is to reward the four best records or the four best teams.
All these in-season elimination games are bound to exclude at least one deserving team, and if it happens to be Alabama, the debates might rage for years.
