5-on-5: Will new coach Scott Brooks bring Kevin Durant to Wizards?
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With Durant and Russell Westbrook, Brooks posted a record of 338-207 as coach of the Oklahoma City Thunder and made a trip to the 2012 NBA Finals among his five playoff appearances.
The 5-on-5 crew breaks down the big questions surrounding the hiring of Brooks.
1. Was Brooks the best coaching hire for Washington?
Michael Wallace, ESPN.com: Hiring Brooks was a good move for the Wizards, if for no other reason than the Brooks' penchant for being a voice of reason. His calm, methodical and patient demeanor seems the exact opposite of Randy Wittman's more abrasive and bottom-line approach. It was time for a change because the Wizards had grown stale and regressed this season. Brooks' fresh perspective and offensive philosophy will be welcomed by John Wall.
Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: On balance, it was a good hire. Partly by design and partly by nature, Brooks never transmitted the kind of charisma or confidence in the media that wins fans. But he was a calming force in Oklahoma City who won 62 percent of his games, often without one of tis two big guns. Retreads get a bad name, but most people tend to improve at their craft over time, and that's the bet Washington is making.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Hard to know, but it's certainly a swing for the KD fences. Brooks took a young, raw team and groomed them into a Finals squad, but no disrespect to John Wall and Bradley Beal, this Wizards team doesn't have a prospect on the level of Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant. The Wizards were the 11th-oldest roster in the NBA this season, so Brooks is taking a very different job than the one he initially took in Seattle.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: He's fine but I'm not sure he offers much that Randy Wittman didn't, save for a slightly more sunny demeanor. I'm agnostic on Brooks as a coach. My instinct is he's pretty good, depending on his roster, and some of the criticisms he endured in OKC were inevitable by-products of coaching Westbrook and Durant together.
Look, the problem in Washington is the uncanny window of opportunity that's been given to Ernie Grunfeld.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: No. I liked Brooks more for a team in a similar spot to the Thunder when Brooks took over, trying to develop their young talent. That doesn't really describe Washington, which wants to win now. And while Brooks certainly isn't the worst choice for that, and might even be an above-average one, I don't think he's the best choice.
2. How likely are the Wizards to sign Kevin Durant with Brooks now in Washington?
Durant will be a free agent in 2016 and perhaps again in 2017.
Wallace: On the surface, yes, this looks like part of a grand recruiting ploy to ease the transition for Kevin Durant should he chose to leave Oklahoma City. But let's get real for a moment. If Durant was adamant about playing for Brooks, he probably would still be playing for Brooks -- in OKC. Durant could have flexed his influence a bit harder if that were a priority a year ago. If Durant is already leaning toward joining his hometown Wizards, Brooks' presence won't hurt. But it won't lure him to D.C.
Arnovitz: Not very, and the hiring of Brooks is unlikely to have much of an effect, for two reasons. It's safe to assume that if Durant had deep affection for Brooks as a head coach, Brooks would still be in Oklahoma City. The second has little to do with Brooks specifically: There's very little precedent for a marquee free agent to choose a destination based on who's in the first chair.
Haberstroh: Five percent. The Wizards had a disastrous season and there are a lot of questions surrounding Bradley Beal's health going forward. I'm not sure Durant sees enough reliable star power in the nation's capital to tempt him away from Westbrook.
Doolittle: Not likely. I don't think Durant leaves the Thunder, but if he does, it'll be a top echelon contender like Golden State or even San Antonio that gets him. It feels like the Wizards have written off an awful lot in order to be best positioned for pulling off a scenario that is not likely to happen.
Pelton: Somewhere between 5 and 10 percent. As much steam as the "KD 2 DC" movement built, chatter has always suggested Durant didn't love the idea of playing at home. Brooks certainly can't hurt the Wizards' chances, but if playing for him was a deciding factor, Brooks would still be coaching Oklahoma City.
3. What other moves do you expect from the Wizards this offseason?
Wallace: Beyond Durant, the Wizards must figure out how much to spend to keep Bradley Beal on a potential long-term deal. Beal has had health issues each of the past two seasons, and his stress fractures have raised concerns about whether his minutes might need to be reduced to more of a sixth-man role. Either way, the Wizards need to add another wing shooter. Otherwise, their core is pretty set with Wall, Markieff Morris, Marcin Gortat and Otto Porter as the building blocks moving forward.
Arnovitz: They'll match any offer to Bradley Beal, and with their cap room, they'll join the parade of recruiters who pitch to the elite class of free agents, though with measured expectations of success. With only five other players on guaranteed deals, they'll need to restock the shelves with the usual goods -- a lot more shooting and at least one more rotation big.
Haberstroh: They'll sign Brad Beal to the max. If they don't bring back Jared Dudley, then they'll need a guy who can make plays and space the floor. I'd back up the truck for Nic Batum, but I'd stay away from Harrison Barnes, who's too one-dimensional for my taste.
Doolittle: Assuming I'm right about Durant, and that Beal re-signs, Washington should be about improving its depth. This Grunfeld has not been great at -- he has overvalued marginal veterans with supposed intangible advantages. A no-Durant outcome basically means that acquiring Markieff Morris was Washington's big move.
Pelton: With the addition of Markieff Morris, the Wizards don't have any glaring positional needs. So I'd expect them to pursue all the top free agents on the market except Mike Conley. I don't see any top-tier players taking their max money, which I think would lead Washington to look at one-year deals or dealing for players like Georgetown product Greg Monroe (who's sure to opt out of the final year of his contract).
4. Fact or Fiction: The Wizards have more than one future All-Star on the roster.
Wallace: Fiction. Right now, Wall is it. Unless Beal can stay healthy and produce at an elite level, he won't likely move ahead of Wall, Kyrie Irving, Dwyane Wade, Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Isaiah Thomas and Jimmy Butler among the East's All-Star-caliber backcourt players. The Wizards desperately need another star to get to the next level in the East.
Arnovitz: Fiction. Beal hasn't demonstrated an ability to stay healthy for a long enough stretch to make that kind of impact. I suppose there's an outside chance he could put together a hot-shooting first half of the season and quality, but I'm not sold on Beal as the full package as a guard who can excel in the pick-and-roll or more generally as a dynamic playmaker. There's nobody else on the current roster who rates.
Haberstroh: Fact. Look, Beal is 22 years old. He's got plenty of time before he hits his prime, and he's already a borderline candidate when healthy. If he can work on his dribble-drive game and get to the free-throw line more, he's an All-Star.
Doolittle: Fact. I think Beal will get there, and Wall is already an All-Star. Beal just needs to get into an extended period of good health and time is on his side.
Pelton: Fiction. Even if Bradley Beal can stay on the court long enough to merit All-Star consideration, I'm not sure he's consistently shown the ability to reach that level of performance.
5. How many games do you expect the Wizards win next season?
Wallace: 48 wins seem about right. The team drastically underachieved this season. Injuries throughout the roster played a major part in that disappointing finish. But even when the Wizards were relatively healthy, they were out of sync. Get this team a new system under Brooks, some roster continuity entering training camp and a rejuvenated Wall and Beal to lead the way, and I like their chances to contend for a top-5 seed in the East next season. If Durant comes, make that top-2.
Arnovitz: So long as Wall and Beal remain healthy, they should return to their 2014-15 level (when they won 46). But the Eastern Conference is deeper than it was a year ago, and the Wizards have more competition in the middle to upper-middle class. If they have higher aspirations, they'll need Porter to make a leap, and for the defense to solidify itself as a unit that pressures opponents with speed, length and smarts.
Haberstroh: From what I hear, they completely tuned out Randy Wittman last season and it showed on the defensive end, where they lost their muscle from season's past. If Scott Brooks can motivate Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris to defend, this is a 45-win team. Add 10 to that if Durant pulls a LeBron.
Doolittle: 41. Mediocrity has been the baseline for this franchise for a long, long time.
Pelton: Assuming a median type of outcome in free agency (overpaying some veterans on one-year deals, possibly including Nene), I'd expect the Wizards somewhere around 45 wins next season. That's about the level at which they played with Morris -- and with relatively average health -- after the trade deadline.
