College Football Playoff predictions: Clemson-Iowa, Alabama-Oklahoma in semis

— -- Bring on the conference championship games -- because that's the only way this top four is going to be changing.

The College Football Playoff selection committee kept its top-five teams status quo on Tuesday, with No. 1 Clemson followed by No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Oklahoma, No. 4 Iowa and No. 5 Michigan State. It was the fifth of six rankings, with the final top four of the season to be revealed on College Football Playoff Selection Day (ESPN, Sunday at noon ET).

Oklahoma has already clinched the Big 12 title, and the winner of the Big Ten championship game between Michigan State and Iowa should also be a lock for a top-four spot. The playoff picture is likely to change only if Alabama or Clemson lose.

Possibly more revealing than the top four this week was the placement of teams on the bubble, namely No. 6 Ohio State, No. 7 Stanford and No. 10 North Carolina. There has been much debate about whether the Tar Heels could finish in the top four with an upset of No. 1-ranked Clemson in the ACC championship game on Saturday, but UNC is still sitting behind three two-loss teams: Stanford, No. 8 Notre Dame and No. 9 Florida State. It's an indication that the selection committee is not impressed with UNC's strength of record, which includes two wins over FCS teams and a loss to South Carolina.

Ohio State's No. 6 spot, though, is a sign that the Buckeyes aren't out of it yet in spite of their inability to win the Big Ten this year. They would need some upsets, though, to make the playoff as a non-champion.

Here's what the bracket would look like today:

As for the other New Year's Six bowls, here's a projection based on the current rankings:

The Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual still hosts the Pac-12 champ, which would be No. 7 Stanford, and since Iowa is in the semifinal, the Rose Bowl would most likely take the next-best Big Ten team, No. 5 Michigan State.

The Allstate Sugar Bowl is guaranteed the Big 12 champ, but since No. 3 Oklahoma is in the semifinal, the Sugar Bowl would get the team that finishes second in the Big 12 standings. Right now, Oklahoma State and TCU are tied for second, a half-game ahead of Baylor, in the Big 12. The Cowboys would own the tiebreaker by virtue of their head-to-head win over the Frogs. The Sugar Bowl is also guaranteed the SEC champ, but since Alabama is in the semifinals, the Sugar Bowl would invite the next highest-ranked SEC team, No. 13 Ole Miss.

Because of geography, proximity and fan interest, the Fiesta Bowl would probably see a marquee matchup of No. 8 Notre Dame against No. 6 Ohio State. The highest-ranked conference champion from a Group of 5 conference is guaranteed a spot in a New Year's Six bowl, so No. 19 Houston would likely face No. 9 Florida State in the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Here's what New Year's Eve and New Year's Day would look like, based on current rankings:

Dec. 31
12 p.m. ET -- Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl: No. 19 Houston vs. No. 9 Florida State

4 p.m. ET or 8 p.m. ET -- Capital One Orange Bowl: No. 1 Clemson vs. No. 4 Iowa (semifinal No. 1)

4 p.m. ET or 8 p.m. ET -- Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic: No. 2 Alabama vs. No. 3 Oklahoma (semifinal No. 2)

Jan. 1

1 p.m. ET -- Fiesta Bowl: No. 6 Ohio State vs. No. 8 Notre Dame

5 p.m. ET -- Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual: No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 7 Stanford

8:30 p.m. ET -- Allstate Sugar Bowl: No. 17 Oklahoma State vs. No. 13 Ole Miss