Crazy crap analytics can prove

Bartolo Colon

Dwyane Wade is the worst three-point shooter in NBA history
Of the 307 players in NBA history to attempt 1,000 three-point shots, eight have a career three-point percentage lower than 30 percent. Wade is one of them. But what distinguishes him from this ill-shooting pack is that he gets worse when the game is on the line: Over the course of his career, from 2003 to present (through Feb. 11), 45 players have attempted 200 three-point shots in clutch time -- when the score is within five points in the fourth quarter or OT. Of those 45 players, Wade is dead last in three-point percentage at 25.1 percent, preceded not so closely by Al Harrington and Carmelo Anthony at 27.3 percent. As for those other 44 players? They average 34.2 percent in crunch time, almost 10 percentage points higher than Flash.

It's simple, really: D-Wade shoots from three with high frequency and converts few, allowing his defenders to lag closer to the interior, which clogs the area where higher-efficiency shots are attempted. So not only does Wade brick his own shots, he makes it more likely that his teammates will too. That's bad shooting. -- Paul Swydan


Bartolo Colon's weight isn't a cause for concern but for celebration
Last season Colon shocked the baseball world. At age 40, and spuriously listed at 265 pounds, the A's starter dropped 18 W's, his most since 2005; a 2.65 ERA, his lowest since '02; and a 141 ERA+, the second best of his 16-year career. It was the fifth straight year in his late-career comeback in which he's posted an ERA+ over 100.

But maybe the baseball world shouldn't have been so shocked. After all, history shows that the chubbier a pitcher is as he ages, the more slowly his skills decline. Of the top 20 pitchers over age 37 in WAR, 10 were in the top quintile of Body Mass Index -- guys like David Wells, Cy Young, Roger Clemens, Kenny Rogers and Gaylord Perry. Similarly, if you look at all pitchers who were active past their 35th birthday, those in the top quintile of BMI saw their ERAs increase 5 percent more slowly and innings totals decline 8 percent more slowly than their peers.

As for Colon in 2014, our projection model sees the Mets' new $20 million man going 10-8 with a cool 3.60 ERA at age 41. And there will be nothing shocking about it. -- Dan Szymborski, ESPN Insider


Luis Suarez is the world's best soccer player -- and it isn't close
Real Madrid forward Cristiano Ronaldo may have been crowned the 2013 Ballon d'Or winner, but no player in the world is impacting the game offensively like Liverpool striker Luis Suarez.

After being criticized for his poor shot selection in '12-13, Suarez is blasting 47.4 percent of his 5.5 shots per game on goal this year, a more accurate rate than that of Ronaldo (39.7 percent), Lionel Messi (44.2 percent) and Franck Ribery (45.8 percent). The reason? His 9.3 touches per game in the opposing team's penalty area not only outpaces Ribery (8.4), Ronaldo (7.6) and Messi (7.2), it's the highest mark in all of Euro soccer.

Page
  • 1
  • |
  • 2
null
Join the Discussion
You are using an outdated version of Internet Explorer. Please click here to upgrade your browser in order to comment.
blog comments powered by Disqus
 
You Might Also Like...