Crowning a champ before it starts

ByMYRON MEDCALF
April 4, 2014, 12:12 PM

— -- ARLINGTON, Texas -- It's about to get real in Jerry's World.

The college basketball season doesn't end with much controversy. You win six in a row, seven if you start with the First Four, and you're rewarded with a national championship. That's obviously not an easy task.

But it also ensures that the team on the podium Monday deserves the crown. No computers or polls. Just basketball.

Now, it's time to predict what we'll see this weekend at the Final Four.

This is the future.

Unless it's not.

See these Bold Predictions and additional Sweet 16 Bold Predictions for more.

It's just not easy to sort through this chaos. Mercer? Wisconsin, not Michigan State or Michigan, representing the Big Ten in the Final Four? Kentucky? Huh?

Kentucky-Florida makes the most sense for a Monday matchup to decide the 2013-14 national champion. But you could argue that Wisconsin beat the best team in the field with its overtime win against Arizona last weekend. And nothing involving the team from Storrs, Conn., seems beyond reason entering Saturday's Florida-UConn rematch.

Shabazz Napier has put together a string of performances that deserve their own "One Shining Moment" montage. Who can doubt a 6-foot-1, 180-pound guard who is averaging 23.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.0 steals per game in the NCAA tournament.

Yes, the Huskies can win this thing, too.

Here's a breakdown of what might happen in Dallas.

Emphasis on the word might.

OK, this will happen. Count on it.

Maybe.

What would happen if Kentucky could stretch the floor? What if opponents couldn't cheat and stack the paint to throw numbers at Julius Randle and Kentucky's big men because the Wildcats had become a legit outside threat, something that seemed laughable when they shot just 32 percent from the 3-point line in SEC play? Those were valid questions about John Calipari's team entering the NCAA tourney. The genius of this Kentucky evolution extends beyond the tantalizing lottery-pick-like turns of Aaron Harrison and Andrew Harrison. It's bigger than Dakari Johnson's soul-stirring breakout or Marcus Lee's awakening. This change, this switch, this tourney, this game centers on spacing. For both teams.

Wisconsin's greatest challenge will be employing a man-to-man attack that emphasizes the obliteration of passing lanes and the crowding of the post, possibly at the expense of giving Kentucky open looks from the arc. Bo Ryan's team will deploy the cavalry to keep Randle, Johnson, Lee and Alex Poythress at bay. But that task has been difficult for a fleet of reputable regimes (Wichita State, Kansas State, Michigan and Louisville) because the Harrisons are a more versatile duo now. Aaron Harrison has made nearly 50 percent of his 3-pointers during the Big Dance. Wisconsin has to account for that, while rumbling with the toughest frontcourt in the country. Expect Kentucky to force the action inside by way of Randle and Johnson. The Wildcats will chase loose balls, rebound (Kentucky leads the nation in offensive rebounding rate, per Ken Pomeroy data) and get to the free throw line as the Badgers try to keep up early. Transition defense will be critical for Wisconsin, too. A running Kentucky is an unstoppable Kentucky. The Wildcats faced early deficits against Michigan and Louisville. Once that engine gets warm, however, they'll be tough for the Badgers to stop simply because they're just relentless in that mode. But Kentucky will have a difficult time building its mojo against Wisconsin.

Still, Wisconsin already has silenced an Arizona team that enjoyed similar on-paper advantages. The Wildcats had a bunch of young athletes, dynamic guards and the top-rated team in Ken Pomeroy's adjusted defensive efficiency ratings. And, like Kentucky, Arizona had similar limitations. Gabe York, Arizona's most reliable 3-pointer shooter, didn't take one shot from the beyond the arc in his team's 64-63 Elite Eight overtime loss to Wisconsin. Ryan is a master at forcing opponents to go to their second and third options. The Badgers will pressure Aaron Harrison. And if he has a bad night and Kentucky goes back to being the mediocre 3-point shooting team that it had been before the tourney, things will change.

But this game isn't just "Can Wisconsin stop Kentucky?" "Can Kentucky stop Wisconsin?" is valid, too. This is not your older brother's Wisconsin offense. The Badgers have been ranked fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency, per Ken Pomeroy data, this season. It's still not clear how Kentucky will deal with Frank Kaminsky. The 7-footer has made 38 percent of his 3-point attempts this season. He creates mismatches and interrupts defensive flow with his versatility and mobility. Kentucky doesn't have any great options to lock him up. Randle is big enough, but is he quick enough? Poythress can probably stay in front of him, but he'll give up four or five inches. Kaminsky had 28 points and 11 rebounds against a strong defense over the weekend. Plus, this young Kentucky team hasn't faced a player like this. Kaminsky is unique. He'll find a rhythm early. And a Wisconsin team that has shot 37 percent or better from the 3-point line in three of its four tourney wins will follow his lead. This won't be a blowout. Sam Dekker, Traevon Jackson, Ben Brust, Nigel Hayes and the rest of this Badgers roster will make this a brawl. They'll make it ugly and test Kentucky's will in a game that won't be decided before the final two minutes. One of Wisconsin's advantages, it would seem, will be its ability to dictate the pace of Saturday's game. But Kentucky just beat Michigan in a 57-possession affair. The Wildcats registered 1.32 points per possession in that game. That's serious. And no Final Four team has defeated a better slate or faced more variety to this point. As disciplined and talented as Ryan's Badgers team has been in the postseason, Kentucky is just on another level right now.

Prediction: Kentucky 72, Wisconsin 67