Dak Prescott is the best bet to stop Alabama
— -- At this time last year, Mississippi State was 9-0, ranked No. 1 in the College Football Playoff Rankings and its quarterback, Dak Prescott, was one of the favorites in the Heisman Trophy race.
And then came Alabama.
The Bulldogs lost to the Crimson Tide, 25-20, in Tuscaloosa and relinquished control of the SEC West. Prescott also fell out of the Heisman conversation, partly because of the three interceptions he threw in that game. Bama went on to win the SEC, and Mississippi State ultimately landed in the Capital One Orange Bowl.
Twelve months later, the Bulldogs are still good (7-2 and ranked 17th), but hardly anyone is talking about them. And Prescott is playing even better than he was last year but is basically unmentioned in Heisman discussions. Two losses make that much difference in college football.
Mississippi State had to replace some key players from last year's team on the offensive line and at running back, which has put a lot more pressure on Prescott to shoulder the load this season. And he has done just that. He currently ranks sixth nationally in Total QBR (84.8), compared to 74.5 last season (19th).
Not only has Prescott achieved this improvement without much of a rushing game to help him out (MSU ranks 65th in Expected Points Added per game on rushing plays; it ranked 29th last season), but he also has been pressured on a higher percentage of his passing attempts this season (28 percent, compared to 22 percent a year ago).
Despite those impediments, Prescott has been more efficient because he has made better decisions. Even with increased pressure from pass-rushers, he has been sacked at a lower rate this season (4.2 percent, down slightly from 5 percent last year) and hasn't been forcing balls when he's thrown them away to avoid sacks. Prescott has been intercepted just once in 300 pass attempts, which is the best interception rate among all FBS players with a minimum of 75 throws.
On top of that, he's probably healthier than he was at this point last season, because he's taken fewer hits. His percentage of plays taking contact is down 24 percent from 2014, in large part because he is running the ball less frequently. Prescott averaged 16.2 rushes per game last year, and that's nearly been sliced in half to 9.6 this year. And a big part of that is a reduction in designed runs up the middle, which are obviously high-contact plays. He's on pace to have 57 fewer of those in 2015.
There's a trade-off, though: The Bulldogs aren't getting as many yards or touchdowns from one of their best runners. But it has sure helped Prescott improve as a passer. His completion percentage is up five points from last season (62 to 67), and there's been an even bigger gain in his adjusted completion percentage. That formula adjusts for difficulty of throwing farther downfield and also disregards throwaways and dropped passes; Prescott is at 71 percent, which is up from 63 percent a year ago.
So we've established that Prescott is a better quarterback than he was in 2014, when he didn't perform very well against Alabama. But does his improvement give Mississippi State a chance to upset the Crimson Tide this time around?
The Bama defense is holding opponents to an FBS-low 15.4 Total QBR, which means that opposing quarterbacks have struggled more against the Tide than any other defense in college football this season. The best performance by a quarterback against the Tide was by Chad Kelly in Ole Miss' win at Tuscaloosa in September. And that should be encouraging to Mississippi State, because there are some similarities between the Bulldogs' offense and that of their in-state rival.
For starters, neither State nor Ole Miss has a great running game. The Bulldogs average 4.09 yards per rush in conference games (eighth in the SEC), while the Rebels average 4.02 (ninth). Against Alabama, Ole Miss had only 92 rushing yards (2.9 per rush), but Kelly was able to pick up a first down or touchdown on three of his six rushes. Obviously, that's something Prescott is also capable of contributing. And maybe this is the game the Bulldogs been saving him for -- to run as often as he did last year.
But it would be asking a lot to expect Prescott to do much more than move the chains a few times as a rusher. Alabama has allowed only six opposing quarterback runs of double-digit yardage this season, which is tied for ninth-fewest nationally. And the longest of those has been 18 yards. In other words, despite his significant dual-threat ability, Prescott is much more likely to make an explosive play as a passer in this game.
And looking back at the Ole Miss win over Alabama, the key -- aside from the plus-five turnover margin -- was that Kelly threw for 341 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. More than likely, Prescott will have to do something similar to give his team a chance, unless Mississippi State is able to score with its defense and/or special teams. Statistically, Prescott is a more efficient passer than Kelly, and like his in-state counterpart, he has talented teammates to target. And for whatever it's worth, Prescott has gone over 300 yards passing in each of his last three games, with a total of 10 touchdowns and one interception.
But digging a little deeper, it becomes clear that Prescott will likely have to play better than Kelly did against the Tide if he's going to give his team a chance to win. Kelly had 341 passing yards in that game, but 66 of it came off an ill-advised pass that bounced off the helmet of a Bama defender and into the arms of an Ole Miss receiver, resulting in a touchdown. Another 73 yards came on a trick play where Kelly faked like he was running to the edge, reaching the line of scrimmage before finally unloading a pass to a wide-open receiver. Those two plays accounted for more than 40 percent of Kelly's passing yardage; he averaged just 6.5 yards per attempt on the rest of his throws.
Fluke plays, trick plays or however else it might happen, Prescott will need to produce for his team to have any shot at a victory on Saturday. But if he's just dropping back and slinging the ball on almost every snap, it probably won't get the job done. Not only does Bama have the nation's best quarterback defense, but MSU is 0-5 in Prescott's career when he has had more than 45 dropbacks in a game. In his other 24 starts, the Bulldogs were 21-3.
Somehow, the Bulldogs must find a way to run the ball. LSU couldn't do it with Leonard Fournette last week, and as a result, the Tigers had only 45 offensive snaps in the game. That formula would minimize Prescott's dropbacks, but it sure wouldn't increase MSU's odds of winning, either.
All this discussion of the Mississippi State offense against the Bama defense might make an upset seem like a hopeless cause, but our Football Power Index (FPI) gives MSU a 42 percent chance to win the game, which means that the Bulldogs probably aren't as overmatched as they might seem. There are two phases of the game in which Alabama hasn't been dominant this season -- the Tide rank 32nd in offensive efficiency and 72nd in special teams efficiency -- and in the other phase, Bama will be facing the best quarterback in the SEC.
Even Nick Saban would acknowledge that Prescott will make some plays on the Tide defense. He won't be held in check as well as Fournette was. The key will be whether Prescott can avoid negative plays as well as Kelly did.
If he can, Mississippi State may have a shot in the fourth quarter. And that's all the Bulldogs can ask for.
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