Debate: Who is the NBA's best rookie?

ByCHAD FORD AND KEVIN PELTON
November 2, 2016, 10:30 AM

— -- Who are the contenders for Rookie of the Year? Who will win?

We have 10 names to watch in the race for top rookie.

Three Sixers at the top

Chad Ford: One of my favorite things about the start of the NBA season is the chance to see how the rookies perform. After covering them in the draft all year, it's fun to see how their skills translate to real-world NBA games.

With? Ben Simmons?out for a significant period of time recovering from a broken foot, the new leader for the Rookie of the Year contest, for me, is one of his teammates.? Joel Embiid?has been terrific in preseason play. Though he's still raw, his combination of size, athleticism and skill is unique in the NBA. He's like a little kid who has been set free after not being able to play for two years.

But if he can stay healthy and if the Sixers feel comfortable giving him the minutes, I think he's in for a monster season. He does things on the floor that only a small handful of bigs have been able to do.

Who's your favorite for Rookie of the Year, Kevin?

Kevin Pelton: I had Embiid after the preseason, and nothing he did in his NBA debut (20 points and seven rebounds in 22 minutes) changed that opinion. Even though Embiid's minutes will be limited, there's no other rookie likely to be more productive in box score terms over the full season. (Teammate Ben Simmons might eventually surpass Embiid, but over a shortened season.) So while injury is always a concern, I think Embiid leads a wide-open field.

Believe it or not, I actually have yet another? Philadelphia 76ers?rookie as the next most likely winner: Forward? Dario Saric, the 2014 first-round pick who came over this season and is starting in place of the injured Simmons. Only? Andrew Harrison, an injury fill-in for the Memphis Grizzlies, played more in his debut than Saric.

I doubt Saric's numbers will be eye-popping, but he's a versatile player with high-level professional experience, so he should retain a key role even after Simmons returns.

Would you agree or are you going to extend this discussion outside the Delaware Valley?

Ford: Well, I agree with you that a Sixer comes next, but I still think Simmons has a great shot at this. Assuming he comes back by the second half of December, I think he is still the second most likely player to put up Rookie of the Year numbers, even if he misses 15 to 20 games. He has just got such an NBA-ready game on a team that wants him to have the ball. Saric is interesting too. But I think that given a weak field (in terms of NBA-ready players), Simmons has the next-best shot.

What do you think of Simmons' chances? Who else should be in the conversation?

Pelton: Consider me skeptical that we'll see Simmons on an NBA court before January. Philadelphia has no reason to rush his return, particularly given the recent history of players reinjuring Jones fractures ( Kevin Durant, Cameron Payne). As I noted when Simmons was first injured, there's limited precedent for players missing so long and winning Rookie of the Year. I'd still put Simmons third on the chance that his numbers could be so dominant as compared to everyone else's that the missed time won't matter.

Best of the rest (all out West)

Pelton: Leaving the 76ers, I'd give? New Orleans Pelicans guard Buddy Hield?the best chance of putting up the numbers necessary to get in this conversation without injuries or trades clearing additional playing time. Hield battled? E'Twaun Moore?for the starting shooting guard spot in New Orleans, and he should play regular minutes off the bench. The Pelicans are badly in need of additional scoring on the wing, so if Hield is successful, his role could expand in a hurry.

Do you like another non-Sixer better than Hield?

Ford: Before the season, I would've said Buddy for sure. He has the green light to score, and we both know how scoring affects the decisions of voters. But I haven't been that impressed early, and I wonder if he's in for a bigger adjustment than I thought.

So now I'm leaning toward? Phoenix Suns forward Marquese Chriss. He has a very high ceiling. He was terrific in preseason. And the Suns seem prepared to give him significant minutes in what looks like another rebuilding year. To me, he's the real dark horse for this award. No one, including me, thought he'd be ready this early. But from what I saw in preseason, I think he can put up numbers.

Pelton: With? Jared Dudley?in front of him, Chriss has the opportunity to start if he plays well. His preseason performance was encouraging. Still, I think Chriss' inexperience means he's likely to play worse when the game gets more complex and more scouting-intensive during the regular season.

We should probably mention the No. 2 pick at some point.? Brandon Ingram?is coming off the bench for now for the Lakers, which I think is a good move by coach Luke Walton, given how young Ingram is. Still, moving? Jordan Clarkson to a bench role creates a spot for Ingram next to veteran Luol Deng?at shooting guard, and I wouldn't be surprised if Ingram starts by the end of the year.

Of course, we need to find out how he is doing after he left Friday's game with a knee injury.

If he's OK, how do you handicap his chances?

Ford: Well, I think Ingram is going to be an All-Star someday, but I don't think we'll see a big impact quite this early. By the end of the season? Sure. Remember, he got off to a slow start at Duke.

So if the voters capture momentum, I could see Ingram catching up. He certainly has the talent and, as you point out, there are ways for him to crack the starting lineup.

I want to throw two more names at you, Kevin. If you would've asked me on draft night, I would've said? Kris Dunn?had a great shot at this award. He's 22. He has NBA athleticism and already has the tools to be a lockdown defender in the NBA. And I still think he makes? Ricky Rubio?expendable.

But he has been pretty up and down early. Do you see him coming on, especially if the Wolves trade Rubio?

And I really like the Nuggets'? Jamal Murray. He's coming off the bench, but his versatility and shooting ability should allow him to get minutes at the 1 and the 2. In most ways, he's a better prospect than Buddy Hield, and he is very mature for his age. Any chance we see Murray creep into the conversation?

Pelton: Dunn was much better in his NBA debut than the preseason, making four of his six shots from the field after hitting at a 22.6 percent clip in the games that don't count. Still, he doesn't look anywhere close to ready to supplant Rubio, to me. I've never quite understood the urgency to move on from Rubio, whose value in terms of advanced statistics likely outstrips his trade value, but Dunn has yet to do anything to accelerate that timetable.

I'd imagine Dunn will play better over the course of the season, but a Rubio trade (or injury) is his only real hope for Rookie of the Year.

I also like Murray and would co-sign his coach Michael Malone's (admittedly biased) comments favoring him over Hield before the two matched up in their debuts. But as you and Malone both note, that's more about Murray's age and potential than where he is right now at this early stage. Barring injuries, I think Murray is more likely to be out of the rotation when? Gary Harris?returns than step into a larger role.

Rookie of the Year sleepers

Ford: Any real sleepers for you, Kevin? Every season, there's at least one guy in the mix who wasn't a top-10 pick.

I'm wondering bit about? Pascal Siakam?of the Raptors. He has a starting position, and he plays extremely hard. I'm not sure he'll be able to put up the offensive numbers to warrant real consideration, but he looks like he could wreak some havoc on the defensive end.

Pelton: That's a good one. We'll see if he maintains that spot once? Jared Sullinger?returns, but for now, Siakam is doing everything he can.

My extreme dark horse would be a second-round pick,? Tyler Ulis?of the Phoenix Suns. He changed the Suns' opening loss to the? Sacramento Kings?with his energy, earning a rotation spot ahead of veteran? Leandro Barbosa. Ulis would probably need at least one of Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight?to be traded or lost to injury -- and maybe both. If so, however, his style could earn him some attention.