Getting more and more difficult to assess state of Serena's game
— -- Amid all the turbulence that is Serena Williams' swirling life, remarkably, one thing hasn't changed for 183 consecutive weeks: her status as the WTA's No. 1-ranked player.
On Feb. 18, 2013, Williams quietly regained that status from Victoria Azarenka, and despite all the dramatic shifts and twists in her recent tennis trajectory, the 34-year-old hasn't relinquished that lofty position.
But looming this week in Cincinnati is a credible threat to her long run at No. 1.
After a shocking early exit in the Rio Olympics, Williams surprised many tennis observers by accepting a wild card into Cincinnati, which is a Premier 5 event for women.
Monday, she abruptly announced she was pulling out of the tournament.
"I'm very disappointed I'm not able to compete in the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, as I was really looking forward to defending my title," Williams said in a statement. "My shoulder inflammation continues to be a challenge, but I am anxious to return to the court as soon as possible."
If No. 2-ranked Angelique Kerber wins the title in Cincinnati -- a reasonably plausible outcome given the shape of the draw -- she would become the new No. 1. How's that for late summer drama heading into the US Open?
If Kerber doesn't win the Western and Southern Open, Williams would still be in position to set the all-time record for consecutive weeks at No. 1. From 1987-91, Steffi Graf put together a streak of 186 straight weeks. If Williams wins the US Open, she would break two gargantuan Graf marks in a single swoop. The two are currently tied with 22 Grand Slam singles titles, the Open era record.
It's difficult to assess the state of Williams' game following her third-round loss to Elina Svitolina at the Olympics.
For starters, she has played only three matches since winning Wimbledon. In Rio, Serena was serving well below her typical speeds and appeared to be nursing a shoulder injury. Emotionally, she seemed to be struggling the same way she did at last year's US Open, during which she saw her bid for a single-season Slam evaporate in the semifinals.
If Williams had played in Cincinnati, in the event of a Kerber title, she would have needed to get to the quarters to stay at No. 1. That might have been dicey, given that she could have met dangerous Karolina Pliskova in the third round. Pliskova (360 aces) and Williams (260) are first and second among WTA players.
Kerber is in form, having reached the Olympic final before falling to Monica Puig. Earlier this year, Kerber won her first Grand Slam singles title -- beating Williams in a three-set final at the Australian Open.
Sixteen of the top 20 women are scheduled to play in Cincinnati, and one that bears particular attention is No. 4-ranked Simona Halep. She won the title in Montreal before skipping the Olympics, citing health fears.
So while Williams, Kerber and most of the other top players traveled to Rio and back -- some encountered long travel delays -- Halep was working out with coach Darren Cahill and trainer Gil Reyes. Will that chance to reset give her an advantage in Cincinnati and, going forward, in New York?
The more pressing question, of course, is Serena's situation going into the US Open, an event she has won six times. In addition to that singles loss in Rio, there was a devastating doubles failure, too. Serena and older sister Venus had won all 15 of their career Olympic doubles matches and had brought home three gold medals. But in the first round, they fell to the Czech Republic team of Lucie Safarova and Barbora Strycova 6-3, 6-4.
For years, the Williams sisters have defied the gravity that eventually brings down 30-something professional tennis players. But that doubles defeat dramatically underlined the concept that their time of invincibility is past. Hard to believe, but Venus and Serena have a combined 70 years on the planet.
Serena's first turn on top came more than 14 year ago, in 2002, when she supplanted Venus. Between then and now, 10 different women have occupied the No. 1 spot. In that time, Kim Clijsters and Justin Henin retired not once, but twice. Lindsay Davenport and Amelie Mauresmo also moved on.
Serbs Ana Ivanovic and Jelena Jankovic are still playing, but their reign lasted only a combined 29 weeks. Caroline Wozniacki's lasted 18 weeks. And whatever happened to Dinara Safina? The two No. 1s before Serena -- Azarenka (pregnant) and Maria Sharapova (serving a drug ban) -- are both out of tennis at the moment.
Serena, meanwhile, has rolled along for 3? years. In a week's time, that magnificent run at No. 1 could be over.
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