Which driver brings home the Sprint Cup?

— -- Can't believe the editors here at ESPN.com want a Chase for the Sprint Cup outlook. Are they setting me up to fail?

Who could predict that the last driver to make it out of the 2015 quarterfinal round -- Kyle Busch -- would win the title? He wouldn't have advanced if his teammate Matt Kenseth had won at Kansas Speedway (and therefore earned an automatic bid into the next round) instead of getting roughed up by Joey Logano.

We all know how that ended up.

So take these outlooks with a grain of salt. In these three-race rounds where race winners and best in points advance while eliminating four drivers, anything can happen culminating with the best-finisher-at-Homestead among the four finalists being crowned the champion.

From fist bumps to fists thrown, the Chase is, by the nature of the rules and for better or for worse, unpredictable.

Kyle Busch

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 18 Toyota

Crew chief: Adam Stevens

2016 regular season points finish: 6th

2016 wins: 4

Previous Chase appearances: 8

Championships: 2015

Why he will win: He knows he can win a championship by running well enough to get by and capitalizing at the end. He's the No. 1 seed because he has four wins and his three runner-up finishes are two more than Brad Keselowski has, not because he has been the best car all year. That being said, he has led more laps than any other driver this season.

Why he won't: He has little momentum. He was sixth in the regular-season standings and has led more than five laps only once in the last six races and in only four of the last 15 races. And being the No.1 seed isn't good for Busch -- he has finished 10th (2008) and 12th (2011) in the years where he was the No. 1 seed.

Brad Keselowski

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Team: Team Penske No. 2 Ford

Crew chief: Paul Wolfe

2016 regular season points finish: 2nd

2016 wins: 4

Previous Chase appearances: 4

Championships: 2012

Why he will win: Keselowski's 12 top-5 finishes rank him just behind regular-season champ Kevin Harvick and that type of consistency can get him to Homestead, where anything can happen.

Why he won't: The 2012 champion doesn't have the speed of some of his competitors. He will have to make something happen to get the finishes he needs, and at some point be forced to overdrive the car.

Denny Hamlin

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 11 Toyota

Crew chief: Mike Wheeler

2016 regular season points finish: 4th

2016 wins: 3

Previous Chase appearances: 9

Championships: None

Why he will win: Hamlin knows how to rise to the occasion. He bookended the regular season with emotional victories -- a Daytona 500 win and then a win at his home track at Richmond. The inconsistency this year can be blamed on that Daytona 500 win and little incentive to race well each week.

Why he won't: Because there are pit-road timing lines on pit road, and Hamlin has had a lead foot this season with more pit-road speeding penalties than trophies. The idea that the Daytona 500 win allowed this team to experiment and cruise through the rest of the year could be a smokescreen of bigger issues. His 29 career victories are more than any other active driver without a championship.

Kevin Harvick

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 4 Chevrolet

Crew chief: Rodney Childers

2016 regular season points finish: 1st

2016 wins: 2nd

Previous Chase appearances: 9

Championships: 2014

Why he will win: He has finished in the top 10 in 21 of 26 races this year, and top-10 finishes gets a driver at least into the semifinal round. He has owned Phoenix -- the last race of that semifinal round -- in recent years. His five top-5s in past six races shows he's ready for the Chase.

Why he won't: His pit crew will crack under the pressure he has put on them. And they will be under pressure because there will be races where the Toyotas will just flat out be better.

Carl Edwards

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 19 Toyota

Crew chief: Dave Rogers

2016 regular season points finish: 7th

2016 wins: 2

Previous Chase appearances: 9

Championships: None

Why he will win: It's his turn. Actually, it's their turn. Both Edwards and crew chief Rogers have proved themselves as championship-caliber talents. They have all the tools they need to win one.

Why he won't: After leading laps in six of the first nine races, Edwards has led laps in only six of the last 17 races. And maybe a driver who loses the championship on a tiebreaker one year and then fails to advance to the final round because of rain at Phoenix in another is destined to never win a title.

Martin Truex Jr.

Team: Furniture Row Racing No. 78 Toyota

Crew chief: Cole Pearn

2016 regular season points finish: 8th

2016 wins: 2

Previous Chase appearances: 3

Championships: None

Why he will win: Nobody has led more miles this year than Truex, who has paced the field for 1,664 miles (16.7 percent). He advanced to the final round last year, so he knows how to deal with the pressure.

Why he won't: He has already won twice this year and Truex isn't known for stockpiling wins in a season -- this is the first time he has won more than one race in a year. His season has been a year of coulda, shoulda, woulda and those types of seasons only get a driver to the final round, they don't win championships.

Matt Kenseth

Team: Joe Gibbs Racing No. 20 Toyota

Crew chief: Jason Ratcliff

2016 regular season points finish: 13th

2016 wins: 2

Previous Chase appearances: 11

Championships: 2003

Why he will win: He's still ticked off about losing the chance to win the title last year and the suspension for wrecking Joey Logano. It's time for him to show it.

Why he won't: He has not performed as well as his Toyota brethren in 2016. He was 13th in points. Yes, he has had four DNFs this year -- and teammates Busch and Edwards have had five and still outpointed him by more than 80 during the regular season.

Jimmie Johnson

Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 48 Chevrolet

Crew chief: Chad Knaus

2016 regular season points finish: 9th

2016 wins: 2

Previous Chase appearances: 12

Championships: 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013

Why he will win: He's Jimmie Johnson. He knows how to win championships.

Why he won't: Because it's 2016, and Johnson has finished in the top 10 in just 10 races. He has never had a season where he has had fewer than 20 top-10s. He also has failed to advance to the final round of the elimination-style Chase implemented in 2014.

Joey Logano

Team: Team Penske No. 22 Ford

Crew chief: Todd Gordon

2016 regular season points finish: 3rd

2016 wins: 1

Previous Chase appearances: 3

Championships: None

Why he will win: Just when you think Logano won't be a factor or has seemed to have found a rut, he breaks out with strong performances. He has quietly had a quite consistently strong season, finishing third in regular-season points despite having just one win. The elimination-style Chase is all about consistency and being great in the last four races.

Why he won't: As much as Keselowski and Logano have tried, they just have not matched the Toyotas and Harvick lap for lap for lap. That doesn't turn around from race No. 26 to No. 27.

Kyle Larson

Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 42 Chevrolet

Crew chief: Chad Johnston

2016 regular season points finish: 14th

2016 wins: 1

Previous Chase appearances: None

Championships: None

Why he will win: No driver is as hot as Larson at the moment, as he has had three consecutive top-three finishes. Drivers talk about the pressure in the Chase, and no driver seems to have more ice in his veins than Larson.

Why he won't: When it takes a driver 99 races to earn his first win, it will take more than three years to earn his first championship.

Tony Stewart

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 14 Chevrolet

Crew chief: Mike Bugarewicz

2016 regular season points finish: 27th

2016 wins: 1

Previous Chase appearances: 8

Championships: 2002, 2005, 2011

Why he will win: The racing gods work in mysterious ways, and Stewart winning a title in his final Sprint Cup season would be the ultimate storyline, thrilling many and angering some.

Why he won't: While he turned a mediocre 2011 season into a title, the brain says no way that can happen again. He has finished outside the top 20 in each of the last four races.

Kurt Busch

Team: Stewart-Haas Racing No. 41 Chevrolet

Crew chief: Tony Gibson

2016 regular season points finish: 5th

2016 wins: 1

Previous Chase appearances: 9

Championships: 2004

Why he will win: Much like Logano, Busch has quietly put together a solid year. He had 17 top-10s in the regular season. Who needs top-5s (he has only six this year) in this style of Chase? Just have that great day at Homestead.

Why he won't: He has no momentum. Since the win at Pocono, he has had just two finishes better than 10th in the last 12 races.

Chris Buescher

Team: Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford

Crew chief: Bob Osborne

2016 regular season points finish: 29th

2016 wins: 1

Previous Chase appearances: None

Championships: None

Why he will win: LOL.

Why he won't: He's already won. He's in the Chase. When you don't have enough fingers and toes to calculate your average finish, it's one of those great-to-be-here kind of things.

Chase Elliott

Team: Hendrick Motorsports No. 24 Chevrolet

Crew chief: Alan Gustafson

2016 regular season points finish: 10th

2016 wins: 0

Previous Chase appearances: None

Championships: None

Why he will win: He has a championship-caliber team, and Elliott finishes races -- he has just one DNF all year.

Why he won't: Rookies don't win championships. Elliott is still learning how to go from very good to great.

Austin Dillon

Team:?Richard Childress Racing No. 3 Chevrolet

Crew chief: Richard "Slugger" Labbe

2016 regular season points finish: 11th

2016 wins: 0

Previous Chase appearances: None

Championships: None

Why he will win: He drives the 3, and sometimes things are hard to explain.

Why he won't: RCR hasn't won a race in nearly three years.

Jamie McMurray

Team: Chip Ganassi Racing No. 1 Chevrolet

Crew chief: Matt McCall

2016 regular season points finish: 12th

2016 wins: 0

Previous Chase appearances: 1

Championships: None

Why he will win: Because nice guys finish first?

Why he won't: NASCAR likes to compare this elimination format to the NCAA men's basketball tournament. The No. 16 seed has yet to beat a No. 1. That, and the fact that McMurray has yet to lead a lap. All year.