Examining Harrison Barnes, Bradley Beal and other extension candidates

— -- Editor's Note: This story has been updated with John Henson's contract extension.

The start of NBA training camps this week also means the unofficial beginning of extension season.

Teams have until Nov. 2 -- pushed back because the usual Oct. 31 deadline falls on a Saturday -- to reach extensions with players entering the fourth and final year of their rookie contracts. Already we've seen four extensions signed: maximum five-year deals for All-Stars Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard and smaller contracts for Michael Kidd-Gilchrist of the Charlotte Hornets (four years, $52 million) and Jonas Valanciunas of the Toronto Raptors (four years, $64 million).

Now is when talks figure to really heat up, however. Portland Trail Blazers GM Neil Olshey told Grantland's Zach Lowe on a recent episode of the Lowe Post that except in the case of obvious max players like Lillard, he prefers to wait on negotiations until there's a deadline looming.

As we near October, that's the case. So let's take a look at the 10 players most likely to sign extensions between now and Nov. 2.

Harrison Barnes
Golden State Warriors
Forward
2014-15 salary: $3.0 million

Get ready for Barnes to be the highest-paid member of the 2016-17 Warriors. Because of the huge jump in the salary cap next summer and the limited number of wing options, Barnes is a good bet to get a maximum offer (currently projected at nearly $90 million over four years) from another team if he hits restricted free agency.

Golden State can head that off by agreeing to a slightly smaller extension now that offers Barnes more security and the Warriors more cost certainty. Last season, merely extending Klay Thompson for the projected maximum saved them $4 million when the cap came in higher than expected. But Barnes is surely going to cost Golden State more than the four-year, $64 million deal Barnes reportedly rejected, as Ethan Strauss recently explained. A deal in the $80 million range seems like a more reasonable compromise.

Bradley Beal
Washington Wizards
Guard
2014-15 salary: $4.5 million

No team has more incentive to wait on an extension than the Wizards, who would bank an extra $9 million or so in cap space by giving Beal a max contract next summer instead of now. While Washington could probably extend Beal at the max and still clear enough room for a max offer to Kevin Durant, doing so would require gutting the roster and leave the room exception as the only way to add additional players for more than the minimum salary.

As a result, the Wizards surely hope to convince Beal to wait on a new contract like Kawhi Leonard did last fall. They can offer the carrot of a fifth year next summer, something Beal can't get in an extension because Washington previously made John Wall its designated player. So while the Washington Post reported recently that the Wizards have offered Beal an extension, it's probably too low for him to seriously consider.

Andre Drummond
Detroit Pistons
Center
2014-15 salary: $2.6 million

Like the Wizards, the Pistons could maximize their 2016 cap space by waiting on a Drummond extension. However, Detroit's incentive to wait is much lower. The Pistons aren't as likely to land an impact free agent and were burned by restricted free agency with Greg Monroe. Monroe took the qualifying offer and left this summer as an unrestricted free agent. There's little argument over whether Drummond, a potential All-Star this season at age 22, is a max player. Expect Detroit to make him the team's designated player and extend him for five years.

Festus Ezeli
Golden State Warriors
Center
2014-15 salary: $1.1 million

The Warriors also must try to determine the value of Ezeli, who emerged as an important part of the second unit during their run to the championship. In their podcast on this topic, Nate Duncan and Daniel Leroux settled on a four-year, $45 million extension, which sounds like a lot for a player who averaged 11 minutes per game last season. An Ezeli deal at or near that level stands the chance of being good for Golden State if he continues his development and is Andrew Bogut's long-term replacement. I suspect it's more likely that Ezeli, who will turn 26 during training camp, tops out as a solid reserve.

John Henson
Milwaukee Bucks
Forward
2014-15 salary: $2.0 million

Henson is the source of an interesting all-in-one stat debate. His per-minute numbers (13.8 points, 9.1 rebounds and an impressive 4.0 blocks per 36 minutes last season on 56.6 percent shooting) have generally been good, while ESPN's real plus-minus (and other adjusted plus-minus systems) have rated him as a negative influence on the court. That could reflect Henson's status as a tweener -- not a good enough shooter to effectively play power forward but too slight to defend centers. As a result, Henson too might be more quality reserve than long-term starter.

Update: ESPN's Marc Stein reported on Oct. 2 that Henson and the Bucks have agreed to a four-year, $45 million extension. The price point just over $11 million a year sets the bar for a number of the other big men eligible for extensions who haven't yet established themselves as NBA starters but have shown the potential to do so.

Terrence Jones
Houston Rockets
Forward
2014-15 salary: $1.6 million

Rockets GM Daryl Morey prizes flexibility, and in the unlikely event that  Dwight Howard opts out of his contract and leaves via free agency next summer, Houston could have max-level cap space. That possibility might complicate negotiations with Jones and teammate Donatas Motiejunas, who are both extension-eligible. I'd only expect the Rockets to make a deal if they think it provides significant savings over what they expect the player to make in restricted free agency.

Meyers Leonard
Portland Trail Blazers
Forward
2014-15 salary: $2.3 million

Coming off a breakthrough season ( and postseason), Leonard could replace the departed LaMarcus Aldridge as Portland's starting power forward. His shooting is important to the Blazers as cover for their non-shooters at small forward ( Al-Farouq Aminu and Maurice Harkless), and at 23 Leonard is younger than many extension-eligible players. As a result, I'd expect a deal that pays him around $10 million a year -- something of a compromise between starter money and the salary of a quality reserve.

Donatas Motiejunas
Houston Rockets
Forward
2014-15 salary: $1.5 million

Having discussed the Rockets' situation with Jones, let's consider the question of which Houston big man is more valuable. Rockets fans are insistent it's Motiejunas, who is bigger, capable of playing both frontcourt spots and more skilled in the post. But before last season, Motiejunas hadn't rated better than replacement level, suggesting some chance of regression this year. Jones has been the better scorer and rebounder and is more than a year younger than Motiejunas. If they're going for the same price and Houston can only have one, Jones is the right choice.

Dion Waiters
Oklahoma City Thunder
Guard
2014-15 salary: $4.1 million

Dion Waiters Island has become a lonely place after Waiters followed up his poor start to 2014-15 season in Cleveland by struggling after a trade to the Thunder. Ultimately, however, only one resident really matters: Oklahoma City GM Sam Presti. Only once since the team's move has Presti gone to restricted free agency with a core player, and that was with Enes Kanter, acquired long after the extension window had passed. So if the Thunder still value Waiters as worth the first-round pick surrendered to the Cavaliers to acquire him, an extension in the $10 million range annually might be a possibility.

Tyler Zeller
Boston Celtics
Center
2014-15 salary: $1.7 million

The Celtics have three frontcourt players eligible for extensions: Zeller, newly svelte Jared Sullinger and newcomer Perry Jones. Of them, Zeller seems to have the best chance at landing a deal this fall. He thrived in Boston's offense, improving both his usage rate and shooting percentage while also cutting his turnovers. At 25, Zeller is probably close to his peak, but should be a solid rotation piece if not starter through his prime years.