Fantasy baseball daily notes for April 4

ByTODD ZOLA
April 4, 2016, 2:53 PM

— -- In an effort to serve daily fantasy players and season-long fantasy players who use daily lineup settings, we present Daily Notes each day of the season. It's a daily version of our Fantasy Forecaster, where we project the best pitcher game scores, as well as the best team hitting matchups based upon a number of factors.

Six teams kicked off their 2016 campaigns on Sunday with 22 more slated to get things rolling on Monday's 12-game slate. The only teams to play on both Sunday and Monday are the Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays. The Detroit Tigers and Miami Marlins will commence action on Tuesday.

As expected, the Monday docket is full of elite options, making choosing an ace for DFS tricky. On the other hand, even though 22 teams are starting their best pitcher, since half of the National League is in rebuilding mode, there are some lesser options to consider for streaming. So let's get to it.

Pitching

 

Elite

While this isn't a hard and fast rule, in general, all hurlers with a game score of at least 65 will be considered elite. Three of today's eight aces are really in their own uber-elite tier: Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer and Chris Sale. All three will begin the season on the road in pitcher-friendly parks against weaker offenses. With no means of differentiation to this point, it's not surprising that Kershaw gets the nod as the day's top option, as the Los Angeles Dodgers take the short trip south to Petco Park to face the San Diego Padres.

We'll break the tie between Scherzer and Sale by giving the Washington Nationals righty the edge as he'll square off against the offensively challenged Atlanta Braves while Sale has to face a designated hitter and the rest of the Oakland Athletics' lineup. Of the three, Sale, coming off a season with a bloated ERA, should be the least owned in DFS action, making him the best contrarian GPP option.

Of the remaining five aces, Madison Bumgarner is in the best spot as he challenges the Milwaukee Brewers and their depleted lineup, albeit in hitter-friendly Miller Park. Still, with so many inexperienced hitters dotting the home team's lineup, the veteran southpaw is in the driver's seat and could be a better bang-for-the-buck play than the uber-elite troika.

With Felix Hernandez saddled with a tough road tilt in Arlington against the Texas Rangers, Jake Arrieta is the next best option as he begins defense of his Cy Young award in Anaheim against the Los Angeles Angels. Curiously, the Halos were 20th overall in terms of run scoring last year, despite a lineup featuring Mike Trout.

Solid

The next tier consists of those pitchers with a projected game score of 50 or more, but less than 65. More often than not, these starters should be in your lineup even if on paper the matchup looks sketchy. Too often, the decision whether to start or sit a borderline option is influenced by recency bias. The game score algorithm does consider recent performance but it doesn't forget -- or ignore -- historical data. As such, the game scores are an unbiased determinant of potential for each matchup.

Of the eleven solid hurlers, nine are working at home. This is an advantage, as globally a pitcher displays home peripherals 10 percent better than when he is on the road. As one may intuit, with so many elite and solid options sitting as their team's number one starter, many are facing each other, which is detrimental to DFS.

Zack Greinke has the most favorable spot in the tier, as he works his first game in an Arizona Diamondbacks uniform in his new home park, Chase Field. The opposition will be the Colorado Rockies, a team that historically plays much better at home than the road.

As alluded to in the introduction, there are several squads in the Senior Circuit playing for the future, thus sporting very weak lineups. This is going to give the better pitchers on these lesser teams an excellent chance to win more games than if the league displayed more parity. A perfect example of this soon-to-be recurring theme is the Cincinnati Reds' Raisel Iglesias as the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Great American Ballpark. Neither club is going to break the .500 mark, but considering the visitors will be sending the incendiary Jeremy Hellickson to the hill, Iglesias has a great shot at the all-important win, rendering the Reds pitcher an intriguing DFS play.

Spot Starters and Streamers

There are five scheduled starters with a projected game score below 50. Of the group. R.A. Dickey stands out as the best play, as the knuckleball wizard faces the less than daunting Tampa Bay Rays in spacious Tropicana Field. With Kevin Pillar chasing down the ­airborne ­contact, Dickey has a chance to keep the hosts in check while his mates try to solve Chris Archer.

The other candidate to deploy is Julio Teheran. The Atlanta Braves young righty is coming off a disappointing season, and while facing the Washington Nationals and Max Scherzer is a tall task, Teheran is at home this should be able to do his part and keep runs down, though he'll need some help from his offense to best Scherzer for the win.

Hitting

With so many quality pitchers making their inaugural 2016 start, favorable hitting scenarios are scant. The team in the best spot is the Cincinnati Reds, as they open at home against Jeremy Hellickson and the Philadelphia Phillies. For most of his career, Hellickson has been a fly ball pitcher, leading to an elevated HR/9 mark despite working most of the time in venues that depress power. Last season he induced more grounders but recorded a career-high 1.36 HR/9, largely the result of moving to Chase Field, a far less forgiving venue than Tropicana Field, his previous digs. Citizens Bank Park will do him no favors, neither will the Great American Ballpark, where he opens the 2016 season. Hellickson is an equal-opportunity home run disseminator, so everyone with pop is in play for the Reds, especially in DFS where homers are currency.

Speaking of Chase Field, the A.J. Pollock-less Arizona Diamondbacks open at home against Jorge De La Rosa and the Colorado Rockies. Last season, De La Rosa pushed his strikeout rate back above league average, but it came at the expense of control, as his walk rate rose for the second straight season. Right-handed batters display decidedly more power than lefties against the southpaw, as evidenced by 33 of the 38 dingers De La Rosa has allowed the past two seasons coming off the sticks of righty swingers. Even without Pollock, the Snakes should be able to generate some offense against De La Rosa, especially the right-handers.

A team in a great spot to score some runs, though perhaps not with the long ball, is the San Francisco Giants as they travel to Milwaukee to commence festivities in Miller Park. Wily Peralta takes the hill for the home team, and his non-dominant style feeds right into the slashing nature of the Giants' attack. Because they're more likely to do their damage without homers (despite the venue favoring power), the Giants don't make for the best DFS stack, but they are certainly a place to look for productive hitters in daily seasonal formats.

The final game of note is in Camden Yards, where the Baltimore Orioles entertain the Minnesota Twins. With Chris Tillman taking the ball for hosts and Ervin Santana doing the honors for the visitors, this has the potential to be high-scoring affair. If you're looking to insure a complete lineup in seasonal daily leagues on a large but not quite complete slate, or for DFS filler, this is a good place to look. The lefties on both sides have the platoon edge and are thus favored.

Most likely to go yard: Jay Bruce . Logically, the choice should be from the Cincinnati Reds, so let's go with the veteran fly-chaser to start the season on a strong note and get an early chance to show off his home run trot.

Most likely to swipe a bag: Jean Segura: The Diamondbacks have inserted Segura at the top of their order, and especially with A.J. Pollock out, the middle infielder will be counted on to make things happen. What better way to do that than to steal a base or two?