Final predictions: W-L record, standings for every NBA team
— -- It's time for NBA predictions!
Let's look at our latest projections for all 30 NBA teams.
These projections use ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and? update the forecast we posted in August for injuries, roster moves and new rotations since then. (RPM is provided by ESPN contributor Jeremias Englelmann.)
We will also note some of the more interesting outcomes from other stats-based projection models.
Western Conference
1. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 66.7 (Summer Forecast: 67-15)
Warriors blog Golden State of Mind tracked statistical projections from several models and found they pegged the team for an average of about 68 wins this season, from a low of 61 to a high of 72. By comparison, RPM is a tad more conservative, though 67 wins would still tie for the seventh-most in NBA history.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 54.4 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)
3. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 47.4 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)
Because of the Jazz's depth, a projected 10-game absence for Gordon Hayward with a fractured bone in his left hand cost them less than half a game on average. Utah still projects as the favorite to win the Northwest Division.
4. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 46.9 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)
Some rotation adjustments moved the Rockets into fourth in the West despite knee surgery that's projected to keep point guard Patrick Beverley out for the first 20 games of the season. But beware that RPM sees Houston as a slightly above-average defensive unit, which doesn't square with a handful of defensive liabilities in the starting five.
5. L.A. Clippers
Projected wins: 46.8 (Summer Forecast: 52-30)
The Clippers actually gained a projected half-win based on an updated guess at their rotation, but still fell behind the Rockets to fifth in the West. RPM is lowest on L.A. of the statistical projections tracked by Golden State of Mind, which range up to 53 wins.
6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 45.7 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)
FiveThirtyEight's CARMELO projections are very high on the Thunder, forecasting OKC to finish sixth-best in the NBA with 50 wins -- the highest of any statistical projection tracked by Golden State of Mind.
7. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 44.9 (Summer Forecast: 46-36)
Statistical projections are relatively unanimous that the Blazers will finish about where they finished last season. Of the teams tracked by Golden State of Mind, Portland's four-game difference between the best (46) and worst (42) forecast was the smallest.
8. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 41.8 (Summer Forecast: 34-48)
Projecting more minutes for Jusuf Nurkic helps push Denver's optimistic RPM projection above .500. CARMELO is also on board with the Nuggets as a sleeper, projecting 40 wins, though most other projections peg Denver in the mid-30s.
9. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 39.9 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)
Improbably, CARMELO is even lower on the Grizzlies than RPM, forecasting 35 wins and just a 21 percent chance of reaching the postseason. ESPN's basketball power index (BPI) is a tad higher, giving Memphis 42 wins on average.
10. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 38.1 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)
With a new coach in Tom Thibodeau -- not accounted for by RPM and many other projection systems -- the Timberwolves have proven uniquely difficult to forecast, especially given their youthful roster full of potential. CARMELO actually projects 46 wins for Minnesota, but Andrew Johnson's projections on Nylon Calculus have the Timberwolves at just 30 wins. The 16-win gap is far and away the biggest among teams tracked by Golden State of Mind.
11. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 37.6 (Summer Forecast: 30-52)
RPM is relatively high on the Kings. Both CARMELO and BPI project Sacramento 13th in the West, ahead of only the rebuilding Phoenix Suns and L.A. Lakers.
12. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 37.1 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)
Jrue Holiday's absence to help his wife recover from surgery to remove a brain tumor is a wild card for the Pelicans. I've projected Holiday will miss 10 games, which in conjunction with his history of injury leaves him playing just 53 total.
13. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 35.0 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)
The Mavericks fare worse by RPM than any other projection tracked by Golden State of Mind, though most of them still have Dallas below .500 this season, which would be the first time for that since 1999-2000.
14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 28.9 (Summer Forecast: 26-56)
The Suns are one of three teams projected to rank in the league's bottom five at both ends of the court.
15. L.A.?Lakers
Projected wins: 24.3 (Summer Forecast: 25-57)
That group also includes the Lakers, who have the league's lowest projection by 1.6 wins.
Eastern Conference
1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 54.1 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)
While Cleveland's 54-win projection is still relatively modest -- the Cavaliers won nearly as many games in 2014-15 after starting 19-20 -- it improved by two games with the retirement of guard Mo Williams, projected for a sub-replacement minus-3.7 RPM.
2. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 49.2 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)
Statistical projections are close to unanimous in forecasting the Celtics with a win total in the high 40s or low 50s, which should put them in the mix for the second seed in the East.
3. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 48.3 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)
Toronto briefly jumped Boston in the RPM projections before news broke that Jared Sullinger would miss an extended period (estimated here at 20 games) due to foot surgery. CARMELO puts the Raptors second in the East ahead of the Celtics.
4. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 46.6 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)
As I noted a couple of weeks ago, projecting Reggie Jackson to miss 17 games due to tendinitis in his right knee (approximately the first month of the season) cost Detroit about a projected win in the standings. It feels like the impact might be greater since the Pistons have only Ray McCallum behind replacement starter Ish Smith. But it's unclear who in the East might be able to move ahead of Detroit for fourth even if the team struggles early in the season.
5. Charlotte Hornets?
Projected wins: 41.6 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)
CARMELO puts the Hornets fourth in the East with a projected 44 wins, but BPI's forecast is even more pessimistic: 40 wins and eighth in the conference.
6. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 41.5 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)
Despite the loss of backup center Ian Mahinmi for a projected 15 games due to knee surgery, RPM pegs the Wizards for a top-10 defense -- seventh, to be exact -- after they finished a disappointing 14th last season.
7. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 39.7 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)
After effectively swapping Al Horford for Dwight Howard and trading starting point guard Jeff Teague, the Hawks are tricky to project. BPI has them sixth in the East at 43 wins but CARMELO forecasts just 38 wins.
8. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 39.1 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)
RPM and CARMELO (37 wins) are both way down on Indiana's offseason makeover, which included swapping incumbent point guard George Hill for Teague in a three-team deal. But BPI has the Pacers fifth in the East with a 44-win forecast.
9. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 38.8 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)
CARMELO has set up camp on Bulls Island, projecting 45 wins, the East's fifth-best total. Both BPI (39 wins) and RPM have Chicago finishing below .500.
10. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 36.8 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)
There's a bit of a dropoff after the top nine teams in the East, though Orlando's projection is still good enough to make the Magic a realistic playoff contender.
11. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 35.4 (Summer Forecast: 36-46)
Miami suffered one of the biggest declines from the original RPM projections (38.3 wins), which included Chris Bosh playing 70 games. And the Heat's projection could sink lower yet if the team trades starting point guard Goran Dragic for expiring contracts to clear cap space.
12. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 34.8 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)
The Knicks have moved up a spot since the initial release of the RPM projections (in August), but their limited depth and Derrick Rose's dreadful projection (minus-2.3, slightly below replacement level) still have New York far below .500. CARMELO (35 wins) is on the same page, though BPI (39.5) is somewhat more optimistic.
13. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins:?33.4 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)
Nobody's RPM projection tumbled more in the last two months than Milwaukee's, due to the loss of Khris Middleton to a torn hamstring that could sideline him the entire season. (He's projected to play just 12 games.) While trade pickup Tony Snell is an upgrade on possible replacement Rashad Vaughn -- whose projected RPM is among the league's worst -- the Bucks still saw their projection drop by 7.5 wins, taking them from a playoff contender to near the bottom of the East.
14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 29.3 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)
The gap of nearly nine wins between the Nets' RPM projection and their opening Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook over/under (20.5 wins) is the NBA's largest in either direction. Both CARMELO and BPI (23 wins apiece) have Brooklyn closer to that lower mark.
15. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 25.9 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)
While the Sixers famously never had the league's worst record during their current rebuilding process before last season, they were surely the league's least talented team throughout the last three years. That might finally no longer be the case; BPI, CARMELO and RPM projections all have the Lakers winning fewer games, and all but RPM have the Nets behind Philadelphia as well.
