GameDay Kickoff: What Texas A&M-Alabama means to the playoff race
— -- Every now and then, the regular season presents us with one game that looms larger than the rest.
Here it is, in Week 8: No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama, the One Game that dwarfs all others.
Both teams are unbeaten. They're elbowing each other for the lead in the SEC West. And it's the only matchup of top-10 teams this week. There are only two other games featuring two Top 25 teams: No. 23 Ole Miss at No. 25 LSU and No. 17 Arkansas at No. 21 Auburn.
There will be plenty at stake in games all across the country, but the playoff perspective begins with ...
No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama (3:30 p.m. ET)
The loser of this game is in a serious bind but not necessarily eliminated. The 12 members of the selection committee do not have to take four conference champions. Their task is to pick the four best teams, period. Head-to-head results, conference championships and strength of schedule are used as tiebreakers when ranking comparable teams, but it's a subjective process that opens the door to the loser of this game still finishing in the top four.
Here's a closer look:
If Alabama loses: The Tide would then need to win out and hope the Aggies lose two of their five remaining games to win the West. With the exception of Saturday's game, ESPN's Football Power Index favors Texas A&M in every remaining game on its schedule. Alabama would be in a significant hole, but if it's a close game, and the Tide finish the season in dominant fashion, they could sneak into the top four without playing in the SEC title game.
At 11-1, the defending national champs would have wins over USC, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tennessee, LSU and Auburn -- and five of those six wins would have come on the road or at a neutral site. The question would be: How many of those opponents are ranked by the committee heading into Dec. 4? If the committee regards the SEC as highly as the AP voters do, it would be a tough r?sum? to beat -- even for a few Power 5 conference champs.
If Texas A&M loses: The Aggies would be in a similar hole, needing to win out AND have Alabama lose twice in its final four games -- an even slimmer possibility, as the Tide have at least a 66 percent chance to win each of their remaining games, according to the FPI. If the Aggies run the table -- with their lone loss a nail-biter on the road against the No. 1 team in the country -- the selection committee would consider an 11-1 SEC West runner-up. Much like Alabama, the Aggies would have a win over a Pac-12 team in UCLA, and they also would have beaten Tennessee. That would look even better if the Vols go on to win the East and play for the title.
Here's what else you need to know for Week 8:
Undefeated update
Washington: The Huskies have a 98 percent chance to beat Oregon State at home, and they need to -- especially with Washington State still undefeated in league play. If Wazzu heads into the Apple Cup with one loss or undefeated and pulls off the upset, it will win the North.
Nebraska: The Huskers shouldn't have any problem against a Purdue team that just fired its coach. They can't get caught looking ahead, though, to back-to-back road games against Wisconsin and Ohio State. That stretch will define their season.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes are playing their second straight road game, and Penn State is fresh off a bye week, but the Buckeyes are simply more talented and have the edge on the sideline.
Michigan: The Wolverines' defense, Jim Harbaugh coming off a bye and home-field advantage? Good luck, Illinois. ESPN's FPI has the Wolverines' win probability at 98.6 percent. It's just another lily pad to step on en route to The Game.
West Virginia: This will be a tricky home game against TCU, and the Mountaineers need to go undefeated to leave no doubt in the committee's mind they're a top-four team. The good news is they're playing defense -- unlike the rest of the Big 12.
Baylor: The Bears have a week off to prepare for a trip to Texas, the start of a stretch that will finally reveal just how good Baylor is this year. The best thing for the Big 12 would be to have Baylor and WVU still undefeated when those teams meet in Morgantown on Dec. 3.
Bubble watch
Louisville (5-1): Not only do the Cardinals have to win every game, they can't afford to win ugly, either -- especially at home against an unranked opponent. NC State is coming off an emotional overtime loss at Clemson and now has to travel to Louisville, which has the Heisman front-runner in quarterback Lamar Jackson.
Utah (6-1): If the Utes can survive the next two games -- at UCLA on Saturday and home against Washington on Oct. 29 -- they will legitimize their chances of playing for a Pac-12 title. The nonconference strength of schedule and loss at Cal, though, will haunt them in their playoff pursuit, regardless.
Wisconsin (4-2): The Badgers have now lost back-to-back games, albeit against two top-five teams, and their chances of winning the West will disappear with a loss at Iowa on Saturday.
Oklahoma (4-2): The Sooners can't lose again, period. After nonconference losses to Houston and Ohio State, OU needs to avoid an upset at Texas Tech this weekend and run the table. The Sooners will also need other Power 5 champs to trip up.
Colorado (5-2): The Buffs are the FPI's favorite to win the Pac-12 South, with a 60 percent chance, but with losses to Michigan and USC, they're probably relegated to the role of spoiler in the CFP picture. The more they win, though, the better Michigan's r?sum? looks. They've got a tough trip to Stanford this weekend.
Group of 5 watch
Boise State: The Broncos are the only undefeated team left in the Mountain West and kick off at 10:15 p.m. ET against BYU. With wins over Washington State and Oregon State, they are in the hunt for a New Year's Six Bowl as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion.
Western Michigan: These Broncos are the only undefeated team remaining in the MAC and should stay that way after playing Eastern Michigan this weekend. Road wins at Northwestern and Illinois will help separate them in the eyes of the committee.
Houston: The Cougars have lost their shot at the top four, but if the New Year's Six Bowls were slotted today, based on the current Associated Press Top 25 poll, they'd still be in the Cotton Bowl against Boise State. The Broncos would be there because they'd earn the bid as the highest-ranked Group of 5 champion, and then Houston would go because it would be the highest-ranked available team after the Rose, Sugar and Orange bowls were filled.
South Florida: With a win at Syracuse, and their only loss to Florida State, don't discount the Bulls. They're leading the AAC East, and if they run the table could earn that New Year's Six bid.
Superlatives
Most intriguing mascot battle: Let's give a little love to the FCS this week, where Campbell hosts Stetson, because it's hard to beat a hat vs. a camel. OK, more precisely, Campbell's Gaylord the Camel vs. the John B. Stetson mascot (yes, after the guy who actually made the Stetson hat). Don't worry, his boots are alligator skin -- not camel hair.
Upset watch: North Carolina at Virginia. The Tar Heels have been living on the edge in the ACC race, beating Florida State, Pitt and Miami by a combined 10 points. Now they have to travel to Virginia for a second straight road game. If the Cavaliers don't turn the ball over, this could be close.
Player in the spotlight: Oklahoma receiver Dede Westbrook. He'll be integral in helping the Sooners keep pace with Texas Tech. Westbrook has 26 catches for 574 yards and eight touchdowns in his past three games. QB Baker Mayfield is completing 89.3 percent of his attempts (25-of-28) when targeting Westbrook during that span.
Matchup to watch: Alabama's defensive line vs. Texas A&M's offensive line. A&M is giving up only one sack per game; Alabama is averaging four sacks. The Aggies are averaging 532.8 yards per game, and the Tide are holding opponents to an average of 274.
Under-the-radar game: Memphis at Navy. Memphis is also undefeated in the AAC West, and Houston is on the edge of its seat waiting for the Midshipmen to trip up. Navy has to lose twice for Houston to win the division, and this could be a tricky one for the Middies.
Must-win game: Wisconsin at Iowa. As the only undefeated team left in the West, Nebraska is the front-runner to win the division, but the winner of this game still has a shot. The Badgers enter the game with a 29 percent chance to win the division, and the Hawkeyes are at 14 percent, according to the FPI.
Don't forget about: Utah at UCLA. Don't snooze on the Utes. They're the only one-loss team remaining in the Pac-12 South, and they're heading to the Rose Bowl for what should be a defensive clinic.
