Grades: Is OKC better without Ibaka? Good trade for Magic?
The Deal
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Thunder get: Guard Victor Oladipo, forward Ersan Ilyasova and No. 11 pick Domantas Sabonis
Oklahoma City Thunder: B+
If nothing else, this is one of the most intriguing NBA transactions in recent memory. With one move, GM Sam Presti has reshaped a Thunder team that came within a game of knocking off the Golden State Warriors, creating the potential for fascinating lineups.
It's possible that Oklahoma City could start small next season, with Oladipo replacing Ibaka in the starting lineup and Andre Roberson sliding down to power forward -- where his non-shooting is less of an issue and his skill becomes a strength rather than a weakness -- on a more permanent basis.
From a pure value standpoint, this deal looks terrific. Both Ibaka and Oladipo are entering the final seasons of their contracts, but Oladipo will make almost $6 million less. If the Thunder waive Ilyasova, whose $8.4 million 2016-17 salary is just $400,000 guaranteed through July 1, and renounce Dion Waiters they could create a modest amount of cap space. That's probably more meaningful in the doomsday scenario where Kevin Durant leaves via free agency, in which case Oklahoma City could replace him with a max player.
If Durant returns, the bigger value aspect of the deal may be team control over Oladipo, a restricted free agent. Ibaka could have left the team next summer at his will as an unrestricted free agent.
Additionally, the Thunder add the skilled Sabonis to their pipeline of young big men that has yielded Ibaka and Steven Adams in the past. Sabonis could be a rotation player right away, giving Oklahoma City a compromise option between playing small lineups and the giant combination of Adams and Enes Kanter. Assuming the Thunder hang on to him, Ilyasova could also present such a medium.
There's risk here, no doubt about it. Ibaka was a big part of Oklahoma City's success in the conference finals (less so against the San Antonio Spurs in the previous round). He gave the Thunder a smaller, more agile option at center against Golden State's death lineup. And as good a fit as Oladipo is defensively, he's not a great spot-up shooter. According to player-tracking data, he shot a blah 35.7 percent on such attempts last season, about the same as Ibaka (36.0 percent) and worse than Waiters' 39.9 percent.
Still, Presti showed his willingness to take a risk when he thought it was the right move by changing coaches before the final season of Durant's contract. That ultimately paid off with Billy Donovan's strong adjustments in the playoffs, and I think the odds are this one will too.
Orlando Magic: C
The most fascinating part about this trade is that Magic GM Rob Hennigan came from Oklahoma City, where Presti hired him. So both sides must believe that it's a win-win. I see the upside more from the Thunder's perspective than for Orlando.
Ibaka is older and more expensive than Oladipo, which might be OK given that the Magic are ready to win now after four years in the lottery. But I'm also not sure how he'll fit in Orlando. I consider Aaron Gordon the Magic's best young prospect, and I think his best position is power forward.
Orlando may be thinking that Ibaka and Gordon can play together at forward, with Gordon defending wings while Ibaka supplies some of the needed spacing for that group. I'd be more intrigued by the notion of playing Ibaka at center with Gordon, which would give the Magic lineups with both more shooting and more mobility defensively.
If Orlando does play small, however, the Magic will need enough wings to fill out a lineup. And that gets a bit more difficult without Ibaka unless Orlando believes Mario Hezonja is ready to step into a larger role. Free agency could provide a solution, though it's relatively light on wings.
So consider the Magic's grade something of a placeholder as we wait and see how the roster takes shape over the next month.
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