Will Greg Monroe solve the Celtics' scoring issues?

ByKEVIN PELTON
February 2, 2018, 3:45 PM

— -- How much can Greg Monroe help the Boston Celtics?

ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski reported Friday that Monroe, who agreed to a buyout with the Phoenix Suns earlier this week, will sign a one-year deal worth $5 million with the Celtics.

Monroe joins a Boston team that has surged to the top of the Eastern Conference standings on the strength of tough defense, but has struggled to score at times, ranking just 17th in offense. Will Monroe, who has averaged nearly a point every two minutes throughout his career, be part of the solution?

Can Monroe help the Celtics?

The reporting over Monroe's decision focused on the opportunity to contend for a championship and make more money in Boston as opposed to potentially starting while playing for his hometown New Orleans Pelicans.

That the Celtics would be unwilling to guarantee Monroe a starting spot makes sense given how well they've played with Aron Baynes in the middle. Boston's league-leading defensive rating has been even better with Baynes: just 99.5 points per 100 possessions by opponents, the lowest on-court defensive rating for any individual player with more than 500 minutes played this season according to NBA Advanced Stats.

Though Celtics coach Brad Stevens may prefer not to start Baynes at times, that doesn't mean Monroe will get those starts. Rather, Stevens is more likely to go small with Al Horford at center flanked by Marcus Morris in certain matchups.

But even if Monroe isn't a starter, there are two overlapping reasons he can boost Boston:

First, I'd expect Monroe to provide reserve scoring punch, a role in which he thrived with the Milwaukee Bucks last season. Boston has struggled badly to score with both Horford and fellow All-Star Kyrie Irving on the bench, and Monroe can upgrade these lineups substantially.

Second, given how well Boston has played with Irving and Horford together, Danny Leroux of The Athletic is right to point out that the biggest upside of this trade might be allowing Stevens to play them together more?instead of having to stagger their minutes so at least one All-Star is on the court most of the time.

Adding Monroe will mean some adjustments for the Celtics. His game is built more around post-ups and face-ups than the pick-and-roll style Boston's second unit has favored. According to Second Spectrum data powered by NBA Advanced Stats, Monroe set just 30.1 picks per 100 team possessions last season in Milwaukee. (Playing largely for the Suns after an early-season trade, his rate is up to 40.1 per 100 so far this season.)

By contrast, current Celtics backup center Daniel Theis is setting screens nearly twice as often as Monroe did last season: 55.2 per 100 team possessions, a rate that ranks 20th among players who have set at least 50 picks.

For a high-volume scorer who operates primarily in the post, Monroe has been efficient, posting an above-average true shooting percentage each of the past three seasons. As compared to the weak offense Boston has been getting with Irving and Horford on the bench, he should be a major upgrade.

Best use of DPE?

The biggest question about the Celtics' signing Monroe is whether he's the very best player or fit Boston could have gotten using the designated player exception (DPE) the team was awarded after Gordon Hayward dislocated his ankle and fractured his tibia on opening night.

The DPE allowed the Celtics to either sign a player to a one-year contract or trade for a player in the final season of his deal, both for up to $8.4 million (the value of the non-taxpayer midlevel exception). Crucially, unlike the midlevel exception, the DPE cannot be split and must be used only on a single player. So Boston had to evaluate whether signing Monroe now was better than acquiring a player such as? Tyreke Evans or Lou Williams via trade or waiting to see which players came available via buyouts after the deadline.

The Celtics could still make a trade, but would now have to match salary, which would likely mean parting with a young player they're developing. It's possible Boston's own 2018 first-round pick may not have been enough to get Evans or Williams, and the Celtics might not have wanted to dip into their stash of more valuable picks for a rental.

My first choice, if it were possible, would have been signing Lakers center Brook Lopez if he agreed to a buyout after the deadline. Lopez brings similar skill to Monroe, but with the addition of 3-point range and superior rim protection. But I can understand Boston wanting to move now instead of waiting to see whether Lopez shook free or was even interested in signing with the Celtics.

Could Hayward team with Monroe?

For the NBA to approve a designated player exception, an independent doctor had to verify that Hayward was substantially more likely than not to be out through June 15, the approximate end of the NBA Finals. (This year's Game 7, if necessary, is scheduled for June 17.)

The definition offers wiggle room for a return, and nothing in the provision of the DPE mandates that Hayward cannot return if it's granted or used. So it's possible that if Hayward recovers sufficiently, he and Monroe could play together in the postseason. If that scenario comes to pass, expect heavy blowback from other Eastern Conference contenders peeved that Boston could have both Hayward and his replacement.

For now, a possible Hayward return remains in the distance, meaning the Celtics are in need of scoring punch to help cover for his absence. Monroe should help provide just that.