High grades for Harvick, Kenseth
— -- On Sunday afternoon, when my SportsCenter responsibilities were complete, I charted a course for the north woods of Maine, to a remote place overlooking Moosehead Lake.
This has always been the place where I do my best thinking.
It's a secluded, concealed region of the north woods. I come here because of that, but I appreciate it most because it's quiet. And over 20 years I've discovered that I think more clearly here.
This week I've connected with many of this year's playoff drivers -- front and center for me has been determining who among the 16 drivers in this year's Chase is legitimate, who might surprise, disappoint, stumble or fall.
Here is what I've come up with: A grade of 1 through 10 for each driver in terms of their title chances. Keep in mind, the only thing receiving a perfect score of 10 is the place from which I type this.
Kevin Harvick -- 9
Harvick is without question your championship favorite. Kevin may not have demonstrated the speed of Gibbs drivers during the late innings of the regular season, but he has certainly had the consistency.
Kevin has several advantages entering the Chase, most important the knowledge of successfully managing this four-round format. Last year's championship puts the wind at his back entering this year's Chase, and while there is pressure to defend, it's a productive pressure much different than the pressure so many others are feeling.
Denny Hamlin -- 4
Hamlin has been a perennial championship contender. I've always appreciated how good he is with his feet in the race car. That's most evident on short tracks, where Denny gets more speed and longer tire life and often challenges for trophies
His problem entering the Chase is the knee injury he suffered last week. It may not affect him as much as you would think inside the car, but it can seriously affect his routine outside the car. Whether it's the inability to exercise, sleep well or even relax because of the pain and discomfort, Hamlin's chances at a title in 2015 have diminished because of the timing of the injury.
Martin Truex Jr. -- 3
I love everything about Truex's story, and I believe he is better than the chance I've given him. This team and driver represent everything right about sports and competition. They are an underdog, a single-car team from Colorado that has exceeded most teams with more money and more resources. But they are still an underdog!
Joey Logano -- 8
Just take a moment to study Logano's statistics from the time he entered the Sprint Cup Series to where he is today. The chart of his career goes from the bottom left corner of the page to the top right. If you're buying equity in a company, this is what you look for. If you're buying into the potential of a Sprint Cup title, this is what you look for!
Paul Menard -- 1
There has been tremendous progress by this group, and making the Chase is a terrific accomplishment for Menard. Could he be this year's version of Ryan Newman, who came from nowhere to nearly win the title in 2014? Maybe. The problem is, we've got very little in terms of a baseline for Menard. I can't see it happening, but I believe he'll be respectable in this year's Chase -- and that he has the potential to give us more to talk about next year.
Carl Edwards -- 5
Edwards was one of my preseason picks to be final four in Homestead. I simply can't give Carl and the No. 19 team better than a middle-of-the-road chance of winning a title, primarily because they haven't to date demonstrated a 10-race stretch worthy of a title. But the pieces are in place.
Ryan Newman -- 5
The resilience of this team and driver should never be questioned nor underestimated. There has to be great value in understanding how to manage this Chase format, which Newman did almost perfectly without the benefit of having blazing speed at any point in the 2014 Chase.
Brad Keselowski -- 7
Keselowski will be fast, though not as fast as his Penske teammate Joey Logano. But because he's a former champ and because he has perhaps the greatest crew chief occupying pit road today in Paul Wolfe, I'm giving this group an above-average chance, and it deserves it.
Jeff Gordon -- 6
Gordon will be better than the numbers he produced in the regular season. I believe he has something left in the tank, and if the No. 24 team can knock down back-to-back top-5s to start the Chase, well ... a fifth title becomes far more realistic. The challenge will be the same for Jeff as it has been all season -- managing the distraction of winding down his Hall of Fame, history-making career.
Clint Bowyer -- 2
Bowyer could make it to the third round of this year's Chase, which would have to be considered monumental, with his team the only one to enter the playoffs facing unemployment at year's end. Bowyer is worthy of title consideration, and his team members have done an admirable job. I expect them to swing for the fences.
Kurt Busch -- 5
Making the Chase is a direct contrast to the place in which Busch began the season. Suspended prior to the Daytona 500, Kurt has to feel he has already won a title of sorts in how he recovered and marched though the early-season adversity.
Dale Earnhardt Jr. -- 7
Junior is in a great place both personally and professionally. My belief in his ability to win a title has never wavered, and he appears poised for his greatest run in a long while. "I'm going to let it Rip!!!" he shared with me this week. I love his attitude, frame of mind and potential.
Jimmie Johnson -- 6
Johnson has been working too hard and carrying the car for roughly four months. Even Superman has limitations, and as an athlete, you can only overcome so much of a deficit through effort and determination. Jimmie will give you plenty of both, but unless his team rediscovers the balance for the No. 48 car, it's not happening this year. Having said that, I would never give them anything other than an above-average chance.
Kyle Busch -- 7
As a Chase driver, Kyle Busch has never won a Chase race. That looms large regardless of the overwhelming potential of this driver and team. In these next 10 races, nothing seems more appropriate than the old adage "actions speak louder than words."
Busch is a fierce competitor -- he demonstrates that every time he straps on a helmet. But despite his 100-plus wins in NASCAR's top three divisions, I believe his greatest accomplishment was what he did this year -- overcoming an extreme injury, returning sooner than anyone imagined possible and lighting it up behind the wheel. Win, lose or draw, Kyle deserves the Driver of the Year Award. And imagine what a remarkable story it would be if he could carry home the championship.
Jamie McMurray -- 3
McMurray has Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400 rings and now has a shot at the greatest of all NASCAR rings. He has always demonstrated a steady, reliable, "save your best for when it matters most" approach to his driving career. That needs to be his approach for the next 10 weekends.
Matt Kenseth -- 8.5
I believe that Kenseth is Kevin Harvick's greatest challenger for the title. As a driver, he is a blend of wisdom and speed. He seldom beats himself, he never looks for trouble and he never backs down from a challenge. I know him well, and I know I've never recognized him as being more focused than he is right now. This is the hottest team and driver entering the Chase.
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