Identifying the best teams away from home
— -- Every February we do our best to predict which team will win the national championship, and every February that task is made more difficult by game location.
This time of year there are home games and there are road dates, but March and April are all about neutral floors. So how can we go about projecting a team's performance when we don't really have any venue-appropriate information?
Alas, I lack the power to have teams start playing neutral-floor games this week. But what I can do is strip out their home games and see how well they've done so far on the road in conference play.
It won't surprise you to learn that teams that are just as mighty as the major-conference programs but that play in leagues like the American or the West Coast Conference have the best per-possession road numbers of all. So to Gonzaga, Cincinnati and SMU, I say: I see you, in all your statistical might. You are all really, really good on the road, and I expect all of you to represent your conferences exceedingly well come tournament time.
As for the major conferences, here are your strongest road teams based on per-possession scoring margins:
1. Arizona Wildcats
If you think back to the 11-point win that Arizona recorded at UCLA a couple of weeks ago, the Wildcats' road prowess might not come as a total shock. Sean Miller's team is actually scoring just as well away from Tucson as it is at home, to the tune of 1.17 points per possession. Lauri Markkanen?is?shooting a rather incredible 60 percent on his 3s in Pac-12 play, and Dusan Ristic is more or less matching that percentage inside the arc. (No small feat.) When you can reliably make both 2s and 3s, your offense will travel well.
Arizona's road magic will receive its toughest test yet this Saturday afternoon at Oregon. Pac-12 supremacy will be on the line in what will be the only regular-season meeting between the Wildcats and the Ducks.
2. Louisville Cardinals
Louisville went to Pittsburgh not long ago and beat the Panthers by 54 points, so, at the risk of belaboring the obvious, the Cardinals' road numbers are fairly robust. Then again Rick Pitino's team also has an easy 15-point win at Georgia Tech to its credit, and other ACC teams are finding to their chagrin that duplicating what the Cards did in Atlanta is certainly no easy task.
Pitino's defense is, per usual, outstanding, and in 2017 that excellence has proven to be portable. Louisville is holding its conference opponents to just 0.91 points per possession on the road, thanks to what can only be termed phenomenal field-goal defense. When the Cardinals are the visiting team, opposing ACC offenses have made just 40 percent of their 2s and 22 percent of their 3s. That will win you some road games.
3. Florida Gators
Florida is five points away from being undefeated in SEC play, and the Gators have earned a spot on this list thanks in large part to a 35-point win in Baton Rouge over hapless LSU. That might not seem like a particularly impressive accomplishment, but it does track pretty well with a UF team that also very nearly beat South Carolina in Columbia.
Mike White's guys love to shoot the 3, and KeVaughn Allen in particular is giving sophomore breakouts a good name by hitting 44 percent of his shots from beyond the arc in SEC play. Meanwhile, the Gators' defense has benefited from forcing conference opponents to commit turnovers on fully 23 percent of their possessions. Florida might lack that signature win everyone says you need to have (unless Miami qualifies), but Kentucky better be ready to play when the Wildcats visit Gainesville this weekend.
4. Oregon Ducks
Remember when I said Arizona-Oregon would be a big game this weekend? (See No. 1, above.) Among other things, Saturday's contest in Eugene will feature two of the best road teams in the nation. Then again I think the Ducks will be just fine with being at home this one time.
Besides, Dana Altman's team will have occasion to use all of its road skills next week when it visits UCLA. In Pac-12 play, the Ducks have thrived away from home by hitting their shots. No, make that hitting their first shots: Oregon hasn't done much on the offensive glass, but that's not a concern when Dillon Brooks is converting 65 percent of his 2-point tries in conference play.
5. Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky has succeeded on the road in SEC play, in part, by pushing the pace. The Wildcats' four road games have clocked in at an average of 79 possessions per 40 minutes. All that running has helped Malik Monk, De'Aaron Fox and Isaiah Briscoe get clean looks at the rim and get a shot off before a turnover can occur. UK is giving the ball away on only 14 percent of its road possessions in conference play.
The Wildcats play at Florida on Saturday, and John Calipari will have to hope Fox has recovered from the bout of illness?that sidelined him for the Georgia game. Alternately, maybe the big lineup Kentucky used against the Bulldogs can continue UK's road dominance of the defensive glass. Either way, Saturday's showdown in Gainesville will go a long way toward determining whether any team can challenge the Wildcats for the SEC regular-season title.
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