What the Kyrie trade means for the Cavs, LeBron and Isaiah
— -- The Cleveland Cavaliers shook up their present and future by trading Kyrie Irving to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday.
How does the deal help Cleveland if LeBron James stays or leaves as a free agent in 2018? What will the Cavs offer Isaiah Thomas next summer? Are more moves on the way?
Let's answer the big questions following the trade.
How does this trade affect Cleveland's luxury tax situation and financial flexibility this season?
The Cavaliers still have the top luxury tax bill in the NBA, but the trade brings considerable savings. Cleveland had a league-high $78.4 million tax bill before the deal. That will drop to $49.3 million, a savings of $29.1 million.
The reduction in the Cavaliers' tax bill will likely cost each of the 24 non-taxpaying teams $500K. Teams under the tax will receive 50 percent of the tax pool evenly distributed. Combined with the Trail Blazers' salary dump of Allen Crabbe in July, those 24 non-tax teams could lose $1.5 million in two moves this summer.
How does this trade help Cleveland's future if LeBron stays?
The Cavaliers' luxury tax bill next summer could possibly mirror the $78.4 million price tag that was on the books before the Irving trade. If James and Iman Shumpert (player option) return, Cleveland will have $123 million in guaranteed salaries -- before Isaiah Thomas is inked to a new contract and not factoring in the Nets' 2018 first-round pick plus filling out the roster. Shumpert opting out of his $11 million contract would give Cleveland tax relief but would not drop the Cavs below the cap, even if Isaiah Thomas is not brought back.
The league's oldest team will also receive a boost next June. Cleveland -- short on assets after trades to acquire Channing Frye and Kyle Korver?-- could add a potential impact player with the Nets pick along with its own first-rounder.
The Cavs could also receive tax relief in the summer of 2019. Even if Thomas returns, the contracts of JR Smith, Shumpert and Korver all could be off the payroll. Cleveland could feature a roster of James, Thomas,? Kevin Love, Jae Crowder?and Cedi Osman and still remain below the projected $131 million luxury tax.
How does this trade help Cleveland's future if LeBron James leaves?
The trade gives Cleveland options and insurance if James does depart. Losing James in free agency next July along with the uncertain future of Irving would have left the Cavaliers with limited options. Instead, with both franchise players off the roster, Cleveland could either rebuild or retool, similar to the Clippers after Chris Paul was traded to Houston.
Rebuilding would see the Cavaliers with a focus on their two first-round picks in 2018, including a potentially high lottery pick from Brooklyn. Cleveland could have $23 million in cap space if James and Shumpert opt out and the Cavaliers elect to bypass re-signing Thomas. In 2019, Cleveland could have anywhere from $45 to $70 million in cap space if Love opts out of his $26 million contract in 2019-20.
The retool route would see the Cavaliers make an effort to bring Thomas back at a manageable contract and remain competitive in the Eastern Conference. With James and potentially Shumpert off the roster, Cleveland would have $12 million in cap space, including the $11.9 million cap hold for Thomas. However, the cap space will decrease once both draft picks are factored in.
What will the Cavs offer Isaiah Thomas as a free agent in 2018?
Thomas will see a substantial pay raise from his current $6.3 million salary next summer. What exactly that raise is could depend on the future of LeBron James.
If James returns, Cleveland will likely have to overpay Thomas based on the lack of cap flexibility to replace the All-Star if he signed elsewhere. Still, the Cavs should be cautious. Thomas turns 29 in February. With the combination of a historic 2018 free-agent class and a market dried up from the previous two summers, Thomas could struggle to find a team other than Cleveland to pay a salary north of $20 million.
The teams that could have cap space next summer are rebuilding squads such as the Bulls, Hawks, Nets, Lakers, Mavericks, Kings, Sixers and possibly Knicks.
Can the Cavs use all of these players and picks in another trade? Are there any restrictions?
Players acquired in a trade who are aggregated cannot be traded for two months. In the case of Isaiah Thomas and Jae Crowder, both players cannot be traded until Oct. 22.
The Cavaliers likely will acquire Ante Zizic with the $2.2 million trade exception created when Mo Williams was sent to Atlanta in January. Because Zizic was not aggregated, he can be traded now.
There are no restrictions on the 2018 Brooklyn Nets first-round pick. Given all the uncertainty of both James' future and where the Nets pick will land, Cleveland should not entertain moving that pick in any potential trade.
Does this impact the larger 2018 free-agent market?
That's still to be determined.
LeBron James and Isaiah Thomas were bound to be free agents even before this trade was finalized. Where things could change is in the impact Thomas and Jae Crowder have on the current roster.
If Cleveland makes a return trip to the NBA Finals with an improved roster and adds a high lottery pick, the 2018 free-agent market could be short two All-Stars.
